{
  "slug": "landmine-uxo-injury",
  "question": "What are the odds of being killed or injured by a landmine or unexploded ordnance?",
  "quick_answer": "Across the global adult population, the lifetime odds of being killed or injured by a landmine or unexploded ordnance are about 1 in 14,700, with roughly a third of casualties fatal. Most people outside affected regions assume the problem is historical, but annual casualties have risen sharply since 2015; the risk is concentrated in a few conflict and post-conflict countries and is near zero elsewhere.\n",
  "category": "other",
  "no_reliable_estimate": false,
  "perceived": {
    "description": "Landmines and unexploded ordnance occupy a strange perceptual blind spot: widely understood as devastating when encountered, but filed as a problem of \"other places and other eras\" by most people outside affected regions. The Ottawa Treaty, signed in 1997, created the impression that the problem was being solved. It is not. Annual casualty counts have risen sharply since 2015, driven by new conflicts in Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen, and by the sheer persistence of ordnance laid decades ago in Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan.\n",
    "rough_estimate": "most people in unaffected countries would guess near zero; the problem is perceived as historical rather than ongoing",
    "kind": "intuition"
  },
  "native": {
    "display": "~5,757 casualties per year globally (2023, Landmine Monitor)",
    "numerator": 5757,
    "denominator": 5000000000,
    "unit": "per year",
    "population": "global adults"
  },
  "normalized": {
    "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000679,
    "display": "1 in ~14,700 lifetime (global adult)",
    "log_value": -4.17,
    "assumptions": "The Landmine Monitor 2024 report documented 5,757 casualties (killed and injured) from mines and explosive remnants of war in 2023. The 2025 report recorded 6,279 casualties in 2024. Using the 2023 figure as central estimate: annual rate = 5,757 / 5,000,000,000 = 1.15 × 10⁻⁶. Compounded over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 1.15e-6)^59 ≈ 6.79 × 10⁻⁵, i.e. roughly 1 in 14,700. The uncertainty band uses a low of ~4,000 casualties/year (pre-2020 baseline, low: 4.72e-5) and a high of ~12,000/year reflecting severe escalation scenarios in Myanmar, Ukraine, and Sahel (high: 1.42e-4; ratio ~3x). Given the sharp upward trend since 2015 and continued new use by non-signatories, the upper tail represents a plausible escalation path.\n",
    "uncertainty": {
      "low": 0.0000472,
      "high": 0.000142
    },
    "scope": "global_adult_lifetime"
  },
  "sources": [
    {
      "url": "https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/11/19/landmines-new-casualties-show-need-support-treaty-ban",
      "title": "Landmines: New Casualties Show Need to Support Treaty Ban",
      "publisher": "Human Rights Watch (reporting Landmine Monitor 2024 findings)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war were recorded in 2023 (including 1,983 deaths), with civilians accounting for 84% of casualties and children comprising 37% of casualties where age was recorded; 164 countries have joined the Mine Ban Treaty, including every NATO member except the United States, while Russia (in Ukraine, since Feb. 2022) and Myanmar's junta (continuously since 1999) have kept using antipersonnel mines",
      "excerpt": "\"There were at least 5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war in 53 countries and 2 other areas in 2023, including 1,983 deaths. Civilians made up 84 percent of all recorded casualties in 2023, while children were 37 percent of casualties when the age was recorded.\" \"A total of 164 countries have joined the treaty, including all NATO members except the United States.\" \"Russia has used antipersonnel landmines repeatedly in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion of the country on February 24, 2022.\" \"The Myanmar junta's armed forces have used antipersonnel landmines continuously since 1999.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-11-19",
      "source_accessed": "2026-07-03",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260616063438/https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/11/19/landmines-new-casualties-show-need-support-treaty-ban",
      "calculation_notes": "Human Rights Watch (an ICBL co-founder) reports the Landmine Monitor 2024 finding — the authoritative global tracker for mine/ERW casualties, published annually by the ICBL (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate). At 5,757 casualties/year over a global adult population of 5 billion, the annual rate is 1.15e-6; compounded over 59 years: ~6.79e-5. The same article also grounds the body text's claim that more than 30 states have never joined the treaty (164 parties against the world's roughly 195 states leaves ~31 outside it), naming the United States as the one NATO non-member and Russia and Myanmar as non-signatories actively using antipersonnel mines in current conflicts.\n",
      "independence_note": "Human Rights Watch's reporting of the Landmine Monitor 2024 is an independent civil-society account, methodologically distinct from the MAG/Landmine Monitor 2025 source below (different publisher, different report year).\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.maginternational.org/whats-happening/2025-landmine-monitor-out-now/",
      "title": "2025 Landmine Monitor out now",
      "publisher": "MAG (Mines Advisory Group)",
      "source_type": "reputable_reference",
      "statistic": "In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance; Myanmar recorded 2,029 casualties, the highest in the world for a second consecutive year",
      "excerpt": "\"In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance... Myanmar once again suffered the highest number of casualties, with 2,029 people killed or injured in 2024.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2025-11-01",
      "source_accessed": "2026-05-03",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260525162002/https://www.maginternational.org/whats-happening/2025-landmine-monitor-out-now/",
      "calculation_notes": "MAG International (a leading humanitarian demining NGO) reports on the Landmine Monitor 2025 findings: 6,279 total casualties in 2024, with Myanmar alone recording 2,029. This corroborates the upward casualty trend and provides the 2024 figure, higher than the 2023 baseline used in our central estimate, supporting the upper range of the uncertainty band.\n",
      "independence_note": "MAG is an independent demining organization; its reporting on the Landmine Monitor 2025 is methodologically distinct from the ICBL/ReliefWeb source above (different publisher, independent commentary on the same report).\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg56094/html/CHRG-111hhrg56094.htm",
      "title": "Legacies of War: Unexploded Ordnance in Laos",
      "publisher": "U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment",
      "source_type": "govt_report",
      "statistic": "Estimates of unexploded cluster submunitions remaining in Laos range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1% destroyed and less than 1% of contaminated land cleared as of 2010; the US bombing campaign ended in 1973",
      "excerpt": "\"Estimates of the number of unexploded submunitions from cluster bombs range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1 percent destroyed, and less than 1 percent of contaminated lands cleared.\" \"The bombing finally ended in 1973.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2010-04-22",
      "source_accessed": "2026-07-03",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20260714014503/https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CHRG-111hhrg56094/html/CHRG-111hhrg56094.htm",
      "calculation_notes": "Official congressional hearing record, cited to substantiate the body text's \"legacy burden\" claim about Laos's unexploded cluster-submunition contamination from the 1964-1973 US bombing campaign. Not used in the headline native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor casualty counts above; the 8-80 million range (not a single point figure) is why the body text now cites the full range rather than the upper bound alone.\n",
      "independence_note": "U.S. congressional hearing record, independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.\n"
    },
    {
      "url": "https://english.news.cn/20240314/80605b49fffa458a918a470848dc615d/c.html",
      "title": "Cambodia records 32 landmine, ERW casualties in 2023, down 22 pct",
      "publisher": "Xinhua",
      "source_type": "news_article",
      "statistic": "Cambodia recorded 32 landmine and ERW casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022",
      "excerpt": "\"Cambodia reported 32 landmine and explosive remnant of war (ERW) casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022.\"\n",
      "source_date": "2024-03-14",
      "source_accessed": "2026-07-03",
      "archive_url": "http://web.archive.org/web/20250614084033/https://english.news.cn/20240314/80605b49fffa458a918a470848dc615d/c.html",
      "calculation_notes": "Cited only to substantiate the body text's claim about Cambodia's ongoing annual landmine/ERW casualty toll — a legacy of the Khmer Rouge era and earlier Indochina wars, now running in the dozens per year rather than the hundreds. Not used in the headline global native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor global casualty counts above.\n",
      "independence_note": "Xinhua's reporting on Cambodia's national mine-action authority statistics is independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG global Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.\n"
    }
  ],
  "comparison_anchors": [
    {
      "label": "Death in a terrorist attack (lifetime, global adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000048
    },
    {
      "label": "Death by lightning strike (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.0000065
    },
    {
      "label": "Death in a house fire (lifetime, US adult)",
      "lifetime_us_adult": 0.00025
    }
  ],
  "regional_breakdown": [
    {
      "region": "Myanmar (active conflict zones)",
      "probability": 0.0019,
      "notes": "2,029 casualties in 2024 alone; highest per-capita mine casualty rate in the world. The civil war has massively expanded mine use since 2021."
    },
    {
      "region": "Post-conflict countries (Cambodia, Laos, Afghanistan)",
      "probability": 0.00015,
      "notes": "Legacy contamination from decades-old conflicts; casualties occur primarily among rural agricultural workers and children."
    },
    {
      "region": "Countries without mine contamination",
      "probability": 1e-9,
      "notes": "Effectively zero risk; sporadic incidents involve historical ordnance from World Wars discovered during construction."
    }
  ],
  "short_label": "Landmine or UXO injury",
  "myth_framing": "underrated",
  "outcome_severity": "serious_harm",
  "exposure_pattern": "acute",
  "outcome_type": "recoverable_injury",
  "valence": "negative",
  "caveats": "Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and post-conflict countries. Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, and Yemen account for the vast majority of global casualties. For residents of countries that have never experienced significant mine contamination, personal risk is effectively zero. The casualty figures include both deaths and injuries — roughly a third of recorded casualties are fatal (1,983 deaths of 5,757 in 2023). The figures also likely undercount the true toll, as many incidents in active conflict zones go unreported. Children are disproportionately represented among casualties because they are less likely to recognize ordnance and more likely to pick up unfamiliar objects.\n",
  "quality_score": {
    "d1": 3,
    "d2": 4,
    "d3": 5,
    "d4": 3,
    "d5": 4,
    "d6": 4,
    "d7": 3,
    "d8": 4,
    "avg": 3.75,
    "scored_by": "extracted-from-transcript",
    "scored_at": "2026-05-03",
    "methodology_version": "1.0"
  },
  "reviewer": "8d-eval-2026-05-16",
  "last_reviewed": "2026-05-16",
  "reviewed": true,
  "generated_at": "2026-04-24",
  "image": {
    "alt": "A stylized warning sign silhouette against a barren landscape, flat vector illustration in muted warning tones."
  },
  "attribution": "Likelier — https://likelier.app",
  "license": "https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/",
  "support": "https://buymeacoffee.com/kgluszczyk?via=likelier&utm_content=api-fear-single",
  "canonical_url": "https://likelier.app/landmine-uxo-injury"
}