Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households in 2022 — Higher Education and Student Loans

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] PhD vs. entering industry early Decision · inaction side

   Statistic

   32% of those who completed at least a bachelor's degree would have completed more education in hindsight; only 9% of people who went to college would have completed less education or not gone at all

   “"32 percent of those who completed at least a bachelor's degree ... would have completed more education ... A far smaller 9 percent of people who went to college said that they would have completed less education or not gone to college if they could make their education decisions again."”

   Calculation notes

   Federal Reserve 2022 Survey of Household Economics and Decisionmaking (SHED), published May 2023. The 0.32 inaction- regret rate is the SHED finding that 32% of bachelor's-or-higher holders would have completed MORE education if they could decide again — the closest direct measure of "wish I had pursued more education." This is broad graduate-education aspiration, NOT a PhD-specific figure, so the entry is marked proxy_only: true.
   

   Source date: 2023-05-22 · Accessed: 2026-06-30

2. [2] Student debt vs. cheaper path Decision · action side

   Statistic

   47% of adults who attended college would have completed more education in hindsight; 15% of borrowers were behind on student-loan payments or in collections

   “"Forty-seven percent of adults who attended college (and either completed at least an associate degree or were not currently enrolled) said that they would have completed more education in hindsight. ... Fifteen percent of borrowers with debt from their own education reported that they were behind on payments or in collections for one or more of their student loans."”

   Calculation notes

   Federal Reserve SHED 2022 data (released May 2023). The 47% "would have completed more education" figure speaks to education-attainment regret broadly rather than to debt-financed 4-year-degree regret specifically. The 15% behind-on-payments / in-collections figure captures financial strain from the debt itself and is used as a corroborating source for the action-side picture; it is not a direct regret measure.
   

   Source date: 2023-05-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-13