Grit: Perseverance and Passion for Long-Term Goals

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Let child quit vs. finish Decision · action side

   Statistic

   Grit — perseverance and passion for long-term goals — predicted educational attainment and performance outcomes above and beyond IQ and conscientiousness across multiple populations

   “"In six studies, grit predicted educational attainment among two samples of adults (Ns = 1,545 and 690), grade point average among Ivy League undergraduates (N = 138), retention in two classes of United States Military Academy, West Point, cadets (Ns = 1,218 and 1,308), and ranking in the National Spelling Bee (N = 175). Grit did not relate positively to IQ but was highly correlated with Big Five Conscientiousness. Importantly, grit demonstrated incremental predictive validity of success measures over and beyond IQ and conscientiousness, suggesting that the achievement of difficult goals entails not only talent but also the sustained and focused application of talent over time."”

   Calculation notes

   Duckworth et al. (2007) provide the theoretical framing for why completing commitments may build long-term capacity. This paper does not measure regret; it is used here as context for the inaction-side argument — the case that finishing, even reluctantly, can develop persistence traits associated with later achievement. It does not supply the proxy regret rate; the Aspen Institute figure does.
   

   Source date: 2007-06-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-04

2. [2] Persist through difficulty vs. quit Decision · action side

   Statistic

   Grit (perseverance and passion for long-term goals) accounted for an average of 4% of the variance in success outcomes across six studies; the paper measures persistence as a predictor of achievement and contains no measure of regret about having persisted

   “"Defined as perseverance and passion for long-term goals, grit accounted for an average of 4% of the variance in success outcomes, including educational attainment among 2 samples of adults (N=1,545 and N=690), grade point average among Ivy League undergraduates (N=138), retention in 2 classes of United States Military Academy, West Point, cadets (N=1,218 and N=1,308), and ranking in the National Spelling Bee (N=175). Grit did not relate positively to IQ but was highly correlated with Big Five Conscientiousness. Grit nonetheless demonstrated incremental predictive validity of success measures over and beyond IQ and conscientiousness."”

   Calculation notes

   Duckworth et al. (2007) is the foundational grit paper across six studies (n=1,545 in the primary adult sample). It establishes that perseverance predicts achievement above IQ and conscientiousness, but it contains no regret measure. No published survey directly asks high-persistence adults "do you regret having persisted?", so the action-side rate is not a directly measured persist-regret figure. It is relabeled here as the share of regrets that are regrets of action ("things done"), which Pink's World Regret Survey finds to be roughly half as common as regrets of inaction in the long run -- about a third of the action/inaction split (proxy_only). This paper is cited as peer-reviewed evidence that sustained effort predicts better outcomes, which is why persistence-regret is the smaller side.
   

   Source date: 2007-06-01 · Accessed: 2026-05-13