Odds of Dying (2024 Data)
Cited in 2 Likelier entries (2 risks, 0 decisions).
Used in 2 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
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Lifetime odds of death as a pedestrian ~1 in 471 (birth-to-death, 79-year horizon)
“"The lifetime odds are approximated by dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in 2024 (79.0 years)."”
Calculation notes
NSC computes lifetime odds by dividing the one-year odds by life expectancy at birth (79 years), yielding ~1 in 471 for pedestrian incident death. Our normalized figure of ~1 in 807 is lower because we use the site's standard 59-year remaining-adult-life convention (from age 18). Both figures are consistent: 79 years × (1/37,200 one-year) ≈ 1/471; 59 years × (1/47,000 one-year) ≈ 1/797.
Independence note: NSC derives its odds from NCHS mortality data, the same upstream source as CDC MMWR but processed independently by NSC's actuarial team.
Source date: 2025-06-01 · Accessed: 2026-04-12
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Lifetime odds of death from hornet, wasp, and bee stings: 1 in 42,626 (US, 2024 data)
“"Hornet, wasp, and bee stings — 1 in 42,626" (from the "Lifetime odds of death for selected causes, United States, 2024" table).”
Calculation notes
NSC's Injury Facts "Odds of Dying" table lists 2024 lifetime odds of death from hornet, wasp, and bee stings at 1 in 42,626, derived from NCHS mortality data and Census Bureau life-expectancy figures. Used here only as an illustrative comparison point for this entry's lifetime figure of 1 in 58,000 — both are low-probability lifetime causes of death of a similar order of magnitude. Not part of the native/normalized calculation for this entry.
Independence note: NSC's mortality-based lifetime-odds tables are methodologically independent of Barnett's per-boarding aviation analysis and the NTSB accident statistics cited above.
Source date: 2025-01-01 · Accessed: 2026-07-03
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Pedestrian death
What are the odds of being killed as a pedestrian by a motor vehicle?
