Revisit incidence of complications after impacted mandibular third molar extraction: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Used in 2 entries

For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.

1. [1] Wisdom-tooth surgery Risk

   Statistic

   Cumulative complication rate 4.2% among 16,609 patients who had impacted mandibular third molars extracted: dry socket 3.66%, prolonged TMJ symptoms 0.41%, surgical-site infection 0.17%

   “"The overall cumulative complication rate for iLM3 extraction was 4.2%. The incidence of DS [dry socket] was the highest (3.66%) [...] About 4 out of 1000 patients had temporomandibular joint symptoms and sought for treatment (0.41%) [...] the incidence of SSI [surgical-site infection] was very low (0.17%)." Among the 16,609 patients, aging was not found to be associated with any complication.”

   Calculation notes

   An independent nationwide-cohort corroboration of the ~4-5% overall complication order of magnitude, from a different country and a much larger sample. It counts only three complication types on impacted lower thirds and excludes nerve injury, so its 4.2% is not directly comparable to Bui's 4.6% -- the convergence is partly coincidental across different composites. Used to bound the central estimate and to establish that dry socket, not nerve injury, dominates the complication count.
   

   Independence note: Taiwan National Health Insurance population database; methodologically and geographically independent of the US clinic-based Bui/Seldin/Dodson cohort.

   Source date: 2021-02-10 · Accessed: 2026-07-14

2. [2] Remove asymptomatic wisdom teeth vs. monitor Decision · action side

   Statistic

   Overall cumulative complication rate 4.2% among 16,609 impacted lower-third-molar extractions; dry socket 3.66%, surgical-site infection 0.17%, temporomandibular-joint symptoms 0.41%

   “"The overall cumulative complication rate for iLM3 extraction was 4.2%. ... The incidence of DS was the highest (3.66%) ... the incidence of SSI was very low (0.17%) ... about 4 out of 1000 patients had temporomandibular joint symptoms and sought treatment (0.41%)."”

   Calculation notes

   Quantifies what an unnecessary extraction costs. Every prophylactic removal — including the ~36% that were never needed — runs about a 4.2% chance of a complication, dry socket being the commonest and generally self-limiting. Permanent nerve injury is rarer, a few per thousand. Note the population: this cohort is all impacted lower-molar extractions, mixed symptomatic and asymptomatic, not solely prophylactic cases, so the 4.2% is a general operative-risk figure, not a rate specific to the unnecessary subset. Supplies the severity of the action harm, not its frequency.
   

   Source date: 2021-02-22 · Accessed: 2026-07-14

Also cited in these entries

HealthDirect

Wisdom-tooth surgery

What are the odds of a serious complication (nerve injury, dry socket, infection) from wisdom tooth extraction?

1 in 22 lifetime(4.6%)activityoverrated