The Experiences of U.S. Adults Who Don't Have Children
Cited in 3 Likelier entries (1 risk, 2 decisions).
Used in 3 entries
For each citing entry, the verbatim excerpt and Likelier's calculation notes (how the source's number was converted to the lifetime-probability framing) are shown below. Click through to read the full claim ledger.
-
- Statistic
The share of childless US adults under 50 who say they are unlikely to ever have kids rose from 37% in 2018 to 47% in 2023
“"The share of U.S. adults younger than 50 without children who say they are unlikely to ever have kids rose 10 percentage points between 2018 and 2023 (from 37% to 47%)."”
Calculation notes
Pew's 2024 survey documents rising expected childlessness, but childlessness alone does not mean dying without an heir -- most childless adults have siblings, parents, or other relatives. The 47% figure is the share of childless adults under 50 who say they are unlikely to ever have kids (up from 37% in 2018); it is not the proportion of all under-50 adults who currently have no children. For women 45-50 (near the end of fertility), the Census Bureau reports 14.9% are childless as of 2024, down from 16.7% in 2014. The Pew data is used here as a trend indicator: a growing share of childless younger adults expect to remain childless, which, combined with declining marriage rates and smaller family sizes, will increase the share of future elderly with no close relatives. This supports an upward-skewed uncertainty band relative to the current ~1% observed kinless-with-no-relatives rate.
Independence note: Pew conducts its own nationally representative surveys using the American Trends Panel. Independent methodology from Penn State's longitudinal analysis.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-18
-
- Statistic
Among adults 50+ without children, 38% say there was a time they wanted children; broader context for fertility preference gaps
“"Among adults ages 50 and older who don't have children, 38% say there was a time when they wanted to have children. About three-in-ten (32%) say they never wanted children."”
Calculation notes
Pew data provides cross-validation for the IFS survey. The 38% who once wanted children among the childless represents a ceiling for wish-for-more regret. Used as contextual support, not as the primary figure.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-25
-
- Statistic
Among US adults 50+ without children, 38% say there was a time they wanted children; 32% say they never wanted them
“"Among adults ages 50 and older who don't have children, 38% say there was a time when they wanted to have children. About three-in-ten (32%) say they never wanted children."”
Calculation notes
Pew does not directly measure "regret" but the 38% who once wanted children is a ceiling for even partial regret. Combined with the MSU finding of no elevated regret, the inaction rate appears comparable to the action rate.
Source date: 2024-07-25 · Accessed: 2026-04-25
