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Likelier

Action vs. inaction regret

Start dialysis for kidney failure vs. choosing conservative (non-dialytic) management

If you act

Start dialysis

19%

If you don't

Choose conservative (non-dialytic) management

5.0%

Percentage who later regret each choice. Bars and full ledger render below.


Health

Last reviewed 2026-05-04

Evidence quality 3.75/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source verification
3/5
D2 Source authority & independence
4/5
D3 Regret-rate accuracy
3/5
D4 Source comparability
4/5
D5 Gilovich pattern
5/5
D6 Prose quality
4/5
D7 Caveat completeness
4/5
D8 Sample quality
3/5
Average 3.75/5
A flat vector illustration of a dialysis machine on one side and a simple hospital bed on the other

Action regret

Start dialysis

19%

~19% of maintenance dialysis patients regret their decision to start dialysis; regret concentrates in elderly, high-comorbidity patients where the survival benefit is most modest

Maintenance dialysis patients (Saeed et al. 2019, n=423); regret is highest in adults ≥75 with high comorbidity burden, the population this entry centres on

retrospective; surveyed during maintenance dialysis

Inaction regret

Choose conservative (non-dialytic) management

5.0%

Near-zero regret: in a shared-decision-making survey, 0% of patients who chose conservative care still had doubts about the decision (vs 17% of dialysis patients)

Older patients with advanced CKD who chose conservative care after shared decision-making (Verberne et al. 2019, n=23 conservative-care patients)

retrospective; patient reported after the decision

% who regret this choice

action dominates — Action dominates — most regret acting.

Related decisions

Semantically similar decisions — same territory, different trade-offs.

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Aggressive chemo vs. early palliative

% who regret this choice

Action dominates

Action regret 1.3× higher

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MAID vs hospice

% who regret this choice

Inaction dominates

Inaction regret 5.0× higher

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Advance directive timing

% who regret this choice

Inaction dominates

Inaction regret 10.0× higher

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Alt-only vs. conventional cancer

% who regret this choice

Action dominates

Action regret 2.6× higher

Health

Pursue longevity vs accept aging

% who regret this choice

Inaction dominates

Inaction regret 1.5× higher

Health

Exercise habits

% who regret this choice

Inaction dominates

Inaction regret 13.4× higher

familyDirect

Authorize family organ donation vs. refuse

% who regret this choice

Inaction dominates

Inaction regret 6.8× higher

family

Nursing home vs home care

% who regret this choice

Action dominates

Action regret 2.3× higher

Risks behind this decision

The probabilities that sit underneath this choice.

For elderly patients over 75 with end-stage renal disease and high comorbidity burden, dialysis and conservative management (symptom-focused non-dialytic care) are genuinely contested alternatives. Da Silva-Gane et al.’s 2012 CJASN study of 170 patients with advanced kidney failure found an adjusted median survival of 1317 days on haemodialysis versus 913 days on conservative kidney management — about a 13-month advantage — with broadly comparable life-satisfaction scores. Murtagh et al.’s 2007 study of 129 patients aged 75 and over found that this survival advantage narrows sharply with comorbidity and is lost altogether in patients with high comorbidity scores, especially ischaemic heart disease. Against that modest, burden-laden benefit, Saeed et al.’s 2019 survey of 423 maintenance dialysis patients found that nearly 19% regretted their decision to start dialysis — driven by treatment burden (three weekly sessions of three to four hours each, strict dietary and fluid restrictions, fatigue) set against the perceived benefit in the context of functional status and life goals. Regret is concentrated in exactly the elderly, high-comorbidity group where the survival benefit is smallest.

The conservative management pathway, when supported by adequate palliative and symptom care, shows consistently high decision satisfaction. In Verberne et al.’s 2019 survey of patients choosing dialysis or conservative care, none of the 23 conservative-care patients still had doubts about their treatment decision, compared with 17% of the dialysis patients, and 91% of conservative-care patients were satisfied with the decision. The conservative-care sample is small, so the near-zero figure should be read as directional rather than precise, but the direction is consistent across the literature: patients who arrive at conservative management through an informed, shared decision-making process rarely regret it.

The action-dominates pattern in this entry reflects a specific, bounded population: elderly, frail, high-comorbidity ESRD patients. For younger patients or those with lower comorbidity burden, dialysis provides substantially greater survival benefit and the regret distribution would look very different. The dominant predictor of regret on both sides is decision quality — whether patients received adequate information about prognosis, treatment burden, and alternatives without time pressure, and whether their own values and priorities were elicited. The difference between well-counselled and poorly-counselled decisions is larger than the intrinsic difference between dialysis and conservative management. The clinical implication is that the decision conversation — not just the decision — is the intervention most likely to reduce regret.

Sources: action

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

2/3 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] Clinical Nephrology — Patients' perspectives on dialysis decision-making and end-of-life care Verified
    Patients' perspectives on dialysis decision-making and end-of-life care
    Statistic
    Nearly 19% of maintenance dialysis patients regretted their decision to start dialysis (Saeed et al., n=423 surveyed)
    Excerpt
    “"Nearly 19% of respondents regretted their decision to start dialysis." ”
    Source data from
    2019-05-01
    Accessed
    2026-06-30
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Saeed F, Sardar MA, Davison SN, Murad H, Duberstein PR, Quill TE. Clin Nephrol 2019;91(5):294-300 (PMID 30663974). Cross-sectional survey of 423 maintenance dialysis patients (Cleveland, OH). Directly measured dialysis decisional regret: nearly 19% regretted starting dialysis. This 19% is used as the action-side regret_rate. Regret is higher in elderly/high-comorbidity subgroups, where the survival benefit of dialysis is most modest; for younger, healthier ESRD patients regret would be lower.
  2. [2] Clinical Journal of the American Society of Nephrology (CJASN) — Quality of Life and Survival in Patients with Advanced Kidney Failure Managed Conservatively or by Dialysis
    Quality of Life and Survival in Patients with Advanced Kidney Failure Managed Conservatively or by Dialysis
    Statistic
    Adjusted median survival advantage of dialysis over conservative kidney management was ~404 days (~13 months); quality-of-life and life-satisfaction scores were broadly comparable between groups (Da Silva-Gane et al., n=170)
    Excerpt
    “"Adjusted median survival from recruitment was 1317 days in HD patients ... and 913 days in CKM patients." ”
    Source data from
    2012-12-01
    Accessed
    2026-06-30
    Calculation
    Da Silva-Gane M, Wellsted D, Greenshields H, Norton S, Chandna SM, Farrington K. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 2012;7(12):2002-2009 (PMC3513739). Prospective study of 170 patients with advanced kidney failure choosing dialysis or conservative kidney management (CKM). Adjusted median survival 1317 days (HD) vs 913 days (CKM) — a ~13-month advantage for dialysis, with comparable life-satisfaction scores. The modest, burden-laden survival benefit explains why a meaningful minority of dialysis starters (Saeed: ~19%) come to regret the decision. This study measures survival/QoL, not regret directly.
  3. [3] National Kidney Foundation — Hemodialysis Verified
    Hemodialysis
    Statistic
    Standard in-center hemodialysis is administered 3 times per week, with each session lasting 3 to 4 hours
    Excerpt
    “"Treatments at a dialysis center are usually done 3 times a week, each taking 3 to 4 hours to complete." ”
    Source data from
    2024-04-26
    Accessed
    2026-07-03
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    National Kidney Foundation patient-education page, last updated 2024-04-26. Cited as the basis for the in-center treatment schedule (3 sessions/week, 3-4 hours each) referenced in the body prose as treatment-burden context for why a meaningful minority of dialysis starters (Saeed et al. 2019: ~19%) regret the decision. Background/context only; not used in regret_rate arithmetic.

Sources: inaction

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

1/2 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] BMC Nephrology — Older patients' experiences with a shared decision-making process on choosing dialysis or conservative care for advanced chronic kidney disease: a survey study
    Older patients' experiences with a shared decision-making process on choosing dialysis or conservative care for advanced chronic kidney disease: a survey study
    Statistic
    Of patients who chose conservative care, 0/23 (0%) reported lingering doubts about their treatment decision (vs 12/70, 17%, of dialysis patients; P=0.03); 91% of conservative-care patients were satisfied with the decision
    Excerpt
    “"Do you still have doubts about your treatment decision? 12/70 (17%) 0/23 (0%) 0.03" ”
    Source data from
    2019-07-01
    Accessed
    2026-06-30
    Calculation
    Verberne WR, et al. BMC Nephrol 2019;20:264 (PMC6635995). Survey study of 99 patients (75 dialysis, 24 conservative care). Directly measured decision doubt and satisfaction: 0/23 (0%) of conservative-care patients still had doubts about their treatment decision versus 17% of dialysis patients (P=0.03); satisfaction with the decision was 91% (CC) vs 87% (dialysis). Conservative-care patients reported the lowest decisional regret of the two groups — the basis for a near-zero inaction-side regret rate among those who chose conservative care after shared decision-making.
  2. [2] Nephrology Dialysis Transplantation — Dialysis or not? A comparative survival study of patients over 75 years with chronic kidney disease stage 5 Verified
    Dialysis or not? A comparative survival study of patients over 75 years with chronic kidney disease stage 5
    Statistic
    In patients ≥75 with CKD stage 5, the survival advantage of dialysis over conservative care narrows sharply with comorbidity and is lost in those with high comorbidity scores, especially ischaemic heart disease (Murtagh et al., n=129)
    Excerpt
    “"However, this survival advantage was lost in those patients with high comorbidity scores, especially when the comorbidity included ischaemic heart disease." ”
    Source data from
    2007-07-01
    Accessed
    2026-06-30
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Murtagh FEM, Marsh JE, Donohoe P, Ekbal NJ, Sheerin NS, Harris FE. Nephrol Dial Transplant 2007;22(7):1955-1962 (PMID 17412702). Retrospective survival comparison of 129 patients ≥75 with CKD stage 5 (52 dialysis, 77 conservative). 1- and 2-year survival 84%/76% (dialysis) vs 68%/47% (conservative); the survival advantage of dialysis was lost in high-comorbidity / ischaemic-heart-disease patients. This is the clinical context for why elderly high-comorbidity patients can reasonably choose conservative care with low regret. Measures survival, not regret directly.

Caveats

This entry applies specifically to elderly patients (≥75) with high comorbidity burden where the dialysis-vs-conservative choice is genuinely contested clinically. For younger patients or those with lower comorbidity burden, dialysis provides substantially greater survival benefit and lower regret. The action-side ~19% regret (Saeed et al. 2019, all maintenance dialysis patients) understates the figure for the elderly high-comorbidity subgroup, where the treatment burden-to-benefit ratio is least favourable; the inaction-side near-zero regret (Verberne et al. 2019, n=23) comes from a small conservative-care sample and should be read as directional, not precise. Conservative management requires access to good palliative/symptom support; without adequate support, the inaction-side regret rate would be higher. Decision quality (adequate information, no time pressure, clear values elicitation) is the dominant predictor of regret on both sides — the difference between well-counselled and poorly-counselled patients is larger than the difference between dialysis and conservative management per se. The gilovich_pattern (action_dominates) reflects the specific population: elderly, frail, high-comorbidity ESRD. For the broader ESRD population, the pattern would be different (dialysis regret lower, action pattern reversed).

Raw data: /api/decisions.json

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