Evidence quality 3.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 3/5
- D2 Source authority
- 4/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 3/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 3/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 4/5
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Landmines and unexploded ordnance occupy a strange perceptual blind spot: widely understood as devastating when encountered, but filed as a problem of "other places and other eras" by most people outside affected regions. The Ottawa Treaty, signed in 1997, created the impression that the problem was being solved. It is not. Annual casualty counts have risen sharply since 2015, driven by new conflicts in Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, and Yemen, and by the sheer persistence of ordnance laid decades ago in Cambodia, Laos, and Afghanistan.
Rough estimate: most people in unaffected countries would guess near zero; the problem is perceived as historical rather than ongoing
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~5,757 casualties per year globally (2023, Landmine Monitor)
global adults
Show derivation
The Landmine Monitor 2024 report documented 5,757 casualties (killed and injured) from mines and explosive remnants of war in 2023. The 2025 report recorded 6,279 casualties in 2024. Using the 2023 figure as central estimate: annual rate = 5,757 / 5,000,000,000 = 1.15 × 10⁻⁶. Compounded over 59 years: 1 − (1 − 1.15e-6)^59 ≈ 6.79 × 10⁻⁵, i.e. roughly 1 in 14,700. The uncertainty band uses a low of ~4,000 casualties/year (pre-2020 baseline, low: 4.72e-5) and a high of ~12,000/year reflecting severe escalation scenarios in Myanmar, Ukraine, and Sahel (high: 1.42e-4; ratio ~3x). Given the sharp upward trend since 2015 and continued new use by non-signatories, the upper tail represents a plausible escalation path.
Caveats: Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and p…
Risk is overwhelmingly concentrated in a small number of conflict-affected and post-conflict countries. Myanmar, Syria, Ukraine, Afghanistan, Cambodia, Laos, and Yemen account for the vast majority of global casualties. For residents of countries that have never experienced significant mine contamination, personal risk is effectively zero. The casualty figures include both deaths and injuries — roughly a third of recorded casualties are fatal (1,983 deaths of 5,757 in 2023). The figures also likely undercount the true toll, as many incidents in active conflict zones go unreported. Children are disproportionately represented among casualties because they are less likely to recognize ordnance and more likely to pick up unfamiliar objects.
How the risk varies
The headline figure averages across very different situations. Here’s how the probability varies by scenario or context:
1 in 526
2,029 casualties in 2024 alone; highest per-capita mine casualty rate in the world. The civil war has massively expanded mine use since 2021.
1 in 6,667
Legacy contamination from decades-old conflicts; casualties occur primarily among rural agricultural workers and children.
1 in 1,000,000,000
Effectively zero risk; sporadic incidents involve historical ordnance from World Wars discovered during construction.
Bar length and shade rank these scenarios against each other, not against other risks. The exact odds are shown beside each.
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Landmines and unexploded ordnance killed or injured at least 5,757 people in 2023 and 6,279 in 2024 — the highest annual totals in years, driven primarily by the civil war in Myanmar, continued conflict in Syria and Ukraine, and the stubborn persistence of ordnance laid decades ago across Southeast Asia and Central Asia. The Landmine Monitor, published annually by the International Campaign to Ban Landmines (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate), is the authoritative global tracker. Its 2024 and 2025 reports document a clear upward trend: casualties have risen sharply since 2015, reversing years of post-Ottawa Treaty progress. At the 2023 rate, the average global adult lifetime probability of becoming a landmine casualty is roughly 1 in 14,700 — comparable to the lifetime risk of dying in a house fire for a US adult.
The perception gap is substantial. In countries without mine contamination, the issue is filed under “solved problems” or “distant conflicts.” The Ottawa Treaty’s success in stigmatizing antipersonnel mines created a narrative of progress that the data no longer supports. A total of 164 countries have joined the treaty, including every NATO member except the United States — leaving more than 30 states outside it, among them Russia and Myanmar, both of which have continued using antipersonnel mines in active conflicts (Russia in Ukraine since its 2022 invasion, Myanmar’s junta continuously since 1999). New contamination from active conflicts adds to the legacy burden: Laos alone contains an estimated 8 million to 80 million unexploded cluster submunitions from a bombing campaign that ended in 1973. Cambodia, more than 40 years after the Khmer Rouge, still records landmine casualties every year — 32 in 2023, down 22 percent from 41 the year before.
Civilians make up 84% of all landmine casualties, with children comprising 37% of casualties where the age was recorded. The typical casualty is a farmer, herder, or child in a rural area who encounters ordnance while going about daily life — not a combatant on a battlefield. This makes landmine contamination one of the clearest examples of a risk that persists for decades after the conflict that created it, harming populations that had no role in the original military decision to deploy the weapon.
Related tidbits
Landmines and unexploded ordnance caused about 5,757 casualties in 2023, roughly 1 in 14,700 over a global adult lifetime. The threat is treated as a relic of past wars, but the toll is still annual and ongoing.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
4/4 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source
-
[1] Human Rights Watch (reporting Landmine Monitor 2024 findings) — Landmines: New Casualties Show Need to Support Treaty Ban Verified
Landmines: New Casualties Show Need to Support Treaty Ban- Statistic
5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war were recorded in 2023 (including 1,983 deaths), with civilians accounting for 84% of casualties and children comprising 37% of casualties where age was recorded; 164 countries have joined the Mine Ban Treaty, including every NATO member except the United States, while Russia (in Ukraine, since Feb. 2022) and Myanmar's junta (continuously since 1999) have kept using antipersonnel mines- Excerpt
“"There were at least 5,757 new casualties from landmines and explosive remnants of war in 53 countries and 2 other areas in 2023, including 1,983 deaths. Civilians made up 84 percent of all recorded casualties in 2023, while children were 37 percent of casualties when the age was recorded." "A total of 164 countries have joined the treaty, including all NATO members except the United States." "Russia has used antipersonnel landmines repeatedly in Ukraine since its full-scale invasion of the country on February 24, 2022." "The Myanmar junta's armed forces have used antipersonnel landmines continuously since 1999." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-11-19
- Accessed
- 2026-07-03 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- Human Rights Watch (an ICBL co-founder) reports the Landmine Monitor 2024 finding — the authoritative global tracker for mine/ERW casualties, published annually by the ICBL (1997 Nobel Peace Prize co-laureate). At 5,757 casualties/year over a global adult population of 5 billion, the annual rate is 1.15e-6; compounded over 59 years: ~6.79e-5. The same article also grounds the body text's claim that more than 30 states have never joined the treaty (164 parties against the world's roughly 195 states leaves ~31 outside it), naming the United States as the one NATO non-member and Russia and Myanmar as non-signatories actively using antipersonnel mines in current conflicts.
- Independence
- Human Rights Watch's reporting of the Landmine Monitor 2024 is an independent civil-society account, methodologically distinct from the MAG/Landmine Monitor 2025 source below (different publisher, different report year).
-
[2] MAG (Mines Advisory Group) — 2025 Landmine Monitor out now Verified
2025 Landmine Monitor out now- Statistic
In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance; Myanmar recorded 2,029 casualties, the highest in the world for a second consecutive year- Excerpt
“"In 2024, a total of 6,279 people were killed or injured by unexploded ordnance... Myanmar once again suffered the highest number of casualties, with 2,029 people killed or injured in 2024." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-11-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-03 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- MAG International (a leading humanitarian demining NGO) reports on the Landmine Monitor 2025 findings: 6,279 total casualties in 2024, with Myanmar alone recording 2,029. This corroborates the upward casualty trend and provides the 2024 figure, higher than the 2023 baseline used in our central estimate, supporting the upper range of the uncertainty band.
- Independence
- MAG is an independent demining organization; its reporting on the Landmine Monitor 2025 is methodologically distinct from the ICBL/ReliefWeb source above (different publisher, independent commentary on the same report).
-
[3] U.S. House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and the Global Environment — Legacies of War: Unexploded Ordnance in Laos Verified
Legacies of War: Unexploded Ordnance in Laos- Statistic
Estimates of unexploded cluster submunitions remaining in Laos range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1% destroyed and less than 1% of contaminated land cleared as of 2010; the US bombing campaign ended in 1973- Excerpt
“"Estimates of the number of unexploded submunitions from cluster bombs range from 8 million to 80 million, with less than 1/2 of 1 percent destroyed, and less than 1 percent of contaminated lands cleared." "The bombing finally ended in 1973." ”
- Source data from
- 2010-04-22
- Accessed
- 2026-07-03 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- Official congressional hearing record, cited to substantiate the body text's "legacy burden" claim about Laos's unexploded cluster-submunition contamination from the 1964-1973 US bombing campaign. Not used in the headline native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor casualty counts above; the 8-80 million range (not a single point figure) is why the body text now cites the full range rather than the upper bound alone.
- Independence
- U.S. congressional hearing record, independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.
-
[4] Xinhua — Cambodia records 32 landmine, ERW casualties in 2023, down 22 pct Verified
Cambodia records 32 landmine, ERW casualties in 2023, down 22 pct- Statistic
Cambodia recorded 32 landmine and ERW casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022- Excerpt
“"Cambodia reported 32 landmine and explosive remnant of war (ERW) casualties in 2023, a 22 percent decline from 41 in 2022." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-03-14
- Accessed
- 2026-07-03 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- Cited only to substantiate the body text's claim about Cambodia's ongoing annual landmine/ERW casualty toll — a legacy of the Khmer Rouge era and earlier Indochina wars, now running in the dozens per year rather than the hundreds. Not used in the headline global native/normalized arithmetic, which rests on the Landmine Monitor global casualty counts above.
- Independence
- Xinhua's reporting on Cambodia's national mine-action authority statistics is independent of the ICBL/HRW and MAG global Landmine Monitor reporting used for the headline casualty figures.