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Likelier

Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds of getting sick from PLA bioplastic or "compostable" food packaging?

Lifetime probability

~1 in 170,000

0.0006% lifetime chance

Most people overestimate this.

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Food · reviewed 2026-05-30
Evidence quality 4.25/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
5/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
3/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
4/5
D6 Prose
4/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.25/5
Source Peer-reviewed study · Food and Chemical Toxicology / Conn, Kolstad, Borzelleca, Dixler, Filer, LaDu & Pariza
lifetime, US adult each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 56,497 1 in 338,983

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

  1. Your factors
A single translucent compostable cup on a pale surface, flat vector illustration in muted tones.

Perceived

PLA (polylactic acid) is the most common "compostable" plastic on the consumer market — the material in clear plant-based cups, deli containers, cutlery, and packaging marketed as eco-friendly. Public perception of bioplastics has bifurcated. On one side, the "compostable" label carries an implicit halo of safety: if it breaks down in a compost bin, surely it must be safer to eat from than conventional plastic. On the other side, rising awareness of microplastics and chemical migration from food packaging has begun to spill onto bioplastics too, with consumer media asking whether the additives, dyes, and processing aids in commercial compostable products carry their own undocumented hazards. IFIC's 2025 Food and Health Survey found that 47% of US adults rank cancer-causing chemicals in food among their top three safety concerns, with food-packaging chemicals included in that bucket; PLA-specific concern is a small subset, but the broader category fear is large.

Rough estimate: 47% of US adults rank cancer-causing chemicals in food among their top-3 concerns; PLA and compostable packaging fall under this chemical-contaminant umbrella

Source: International Food Information Council (IFIC) (2025) — IFIC 2025 Food & Health Survey — 47% rank cancer-causing chemicals in food among top-3 concerns

Actual

~1 per 10,000,000 US adults per year attributable illness from PLA food-contact use

US adults using PLA-based food packaging at normal consumer temperatures

Show derivation

No published epidemiological cohort has measured attributable cancer, endocrine disease, or other illness from consumer PLA food-contact use. The 1995 Conn et al. safety assessment in Food and Chemical Toxicology concluded that PLA is "Generally Recognized As Safe" for food-contact use, on the basis that the principal migrants (lactic acid, lactide monomer, and lactoyllactic acid) all hydrolyze to lactic acid — a substance the human body produces metabolically and that has decades of food-additive GRAS status. Mutsuga et al. (2008) measured total migration of 0.28-15 µg/cm² at 40°C for 180 days (typical consumer storage), and Auras et al. (2004) summarized that PLA migration is "much lower than any of the current average dietary lactic acid intake values allowed by several governmental agencies." The native rate of 1 in 10,000,000 per year is an upper-bound placeholder reflecting that: (a) the PLA polymer itself shows minimal migration at room-temperature consumer use, (b) the migrants are biologically benign, and (c) no population-level disease signal has been detected. Lifetime estimate: 1 − (1 − 1/10,000,000)^59 ≈ 5.9 × 10⁻⁶ ≈ 1 in 170,000. This is a conservative upper bound for the polymer alone, not a measured value — the true attributable risk from PLA polymer migration may be effectively zero. Commercial compostable packaging that combines PLA with dyes, plasticizers, and processing additives has substantially less public migration data than the pure polymer; the upper end of the uncertainty band reflects this blend-vs-polymer evidence gap. Zimmermann et al. (2020) showed in an ecotoxicology assay that bio-based and biodegradable plastics "can be as toxic as their conventional counterparts" (they attributed PLA's toxicity to the particle itself, not to extractable additives), which underscores that a "compostable" label is not itself a guarantee of low toxicity.

Caveats: This entry addresses health harm from chemical migration during normal consumer …

This entry addresses health harm from chemical migration during normal consumer use of PLA-based food-contact items at room or refrigerated temperatures, and from above-Tg use such as hot beverages in compostable cups or microwave reheating. It does not cover: ecological or marine-debris questions (PLA persistence in seawater is a separate research area), occupational exposure during PLA manufacturing, or the distinct microplastic exposure pathway covered in the microplastics-health-harm entry. The strongest published evidence covers the PLA polymer in isolation — Conn 1995, Mutsuga 2008, and Auras 2004 collectively establish that polymer migration is low and biologically benign. Commercial "compostable" packaging is typically a PLA blend with proprietary dyes, plasticizers, and processing additives, and public migration data on those commercial blends is far thinner than on the pure polymer. Zimmermann et al. (2020) found in an ecotoxicology assay that bio-based plastics can be as toxic as conventional ones, though for PLA that toxicity was driven by the particle itself rather than by extractable additives. No epidemiological cohort has isolated attributable human disease from either pure PLA or commercial PLA blends at consumer exposure levels. The 1-in-170,000 lifetime figure is a conservative upper bound for the polymer; the polymer-vs-blend evidence asymmetry is the largest source of remaining uncertainty. Compare with plastic-food-container-leaching for the conventional-plastic parallel and nonstick-cookware-cancer for the regulatory-floor pattern this entry follows.

Related risks

Other risks on similar themes — for exploring related fears.

food

Dirty can illness

What are the odds of getting sick from drinking out of an unwashed soda can?

food

Plastic container leaching

What are the odds of getting sick from plastic food containers?

cancer

Teflon cookware cancer

What are the odds of getting cancer from nonstick (Teflon) cookware?

Compare to:

The published safety record on PLA — polylactic acid, the polymer behind most “compostable” food packaging on the consumer market — is genuinely reassuring for the polymer itself, and genuinely thin for the commercial blends it ends up in. Conn et al. in Food and Chemical Toxicology (1995), writing with an expert panel that included several FDA-recognized toxicologists, concluded that PLA is “Generally Recognized As Safe” for food-contact use on the basis that its principal migrants — lactic acid, lactide, and lactoyllactic acid — all hydrolyze to lactic acid, a substance the human body produces metabolically and that has long-standing direct food-additive GRAS status. Mutsuga et al. (2008) measured total migration of 0.28-15 µg/cm² at 40°C over 180 days, well within food-contact norms for a benign migrant. Auras et al. (2004) summarized that PLA migration is “much lower than any of the current average dietary lactic acid intake values allowed by several governmental agencies.” The normalized lifetime figure of roughly 1 in 170,000 is a conservative upper bound parallel to the nonstick-cookware floor; the true attributable risk from PLA polymer migration may be effectively zero.

The interesting result in the Mutsuga data is what happens above PLA’s glass transition temperature, which sits at roughly 55-60°C. At 60°C for 10 days, migration jumped to 0.73-2840 µg/cm² — two to three orders of magnitude higher than the room-temperature regime. Most consumer use of PLA happens below this threshold: salad containers, deli boxes, cold drinks. But hot coffee in a compostable cup, or a microwaved lunch in a PLA tray, briefly puts the polymer past its Tg, which is why most compostable packaging is not labeled microwave-safe. The migrants are still lactic acid and lactide, which means more exposure to a substance the body already handles — not a sudden carcinogen pathway. It is the closest the PLA polymer story comes to a meaningful behavioral signal.

The harder question is what is in the commercial “compostable” cup beyond the PLA itself. Zimmermann et al. in Environmental Pollution (2020) tested PLA samples in Daphnia magna assays and found that bio-based and biodegradable plastics “can be as toxic as their conventional counterparts.” Notably, that study attributed the toxicity of PVC to its chemicals but found the effects of PLA were “induced by the mere particle” rather than by extractable additives — so it is not evidence that additives drive PLA-blend harm. That is an ecotoxicology finding, not a human exposure study, and converting it to consumer disease risk would overstate it. But a real evidence gap remains: the PLA polymer in isolation is one of the better-characterized food-contact materials in the literature, while the commercial blends that consumers actually encounter — with proprietary plasticizers, dyes, and processing aids — have much thinner public migration data. No epidemiological cohort has measured attributable illness from either form at consumer levels. The polymer is well-grounded; the blends are not yet.

No cohort has measured illness from consumer PLA food packaging. Its main migrants hydrolyze to lactic acid, a substance the body already makes. The upper-bound attributable risk is about 1 in 170,000 over a lifetime.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

4/5 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] Food and Chemical Toxicology / Conn, Kolstad, Borzelleca, Dixler, Filer, LaDu & Pariza — Safety assessment of polylactide (PLA) for use as a food-contact polymer Verified
    Safety assessment of polylactide (PLA) for use as a food-contact polymer
    Statistic
    PLA is concluded to be safe and Generally Recognized As Safe (GRAS) for its intended uses as a food-contact polymer; migrants (lactic acid, lactide, lactoyllactic acid) convert to lactic acid in food
    Excerpt
    “"It is concluded that PLA is safe and 'Generally Recognized As Safe' for its intended uses as a polymer for fabricating articles that will hold and/or package food." ”
    Source data from
    1995-04-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-30 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Conn et al. (1995) performed migration testing on PLA samples under conditions simulating realistic worst-case use in housewares and food packaging. The authors, drawn from a panel including FDA-recognized toxicology experts (Borzelleca, Filer, LaDu, Pariza), identified the three principal migrants and noted that all hydrolyze to lactic acid, which is endogenous to human metabolism and has long-standing GRAS status as a direct food additive. The verbatim GRAS conclusion anchors the lower end of the uncertainty band. This is the foundational safety assessment that supports PLA's use in US food-contact applications under FDA's general regulatory framework for food-contact polymers (21 CFR 177).
    Independence
    Independent academic safety assessment authored by an expert panel; predates and is methodologically distinct from the Mutsuga and Auras analyses below.
  2. [2] Food Additives & Contaminants Part A / Mutsuga, Kawamura & Tanamoto — Migration of lactic acid, lactide and oligomers from polylactide food-contact materials Verified
    Migration of lactic acid, lactide and oligomers from polylactide food-contact materials
    Statistic
    Total migration of lactic acid, lactide, and oligomers from PLA sheets at 40°C for 180 days was 0.28-15.00 µg/cm²; at 60°C for 10 days, migration rose to 0.73-2840 µg/cm²
    Excerpt
    “"At 40°C for 180 days, the total of lactic acid, lactide and oligomers migration levels were 0.28-15.00 microg cm(-2). At 60°C for 10 days, the total migration levels were increased to 0.73-2840 microg cm(-2)." ”
    Source data from
    2008-10-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-30 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Mutsuga et al. tested PLA sheets used for lunch boxes and fresh-food packaging in Japan, measuring lactic acid, lactide, and oligomer migration by LC/MS. The 40°C figure brackets typical consumer storage (refrigeration through warm-kitchen conditions) and confirms low migration well within food-contact safety norms. The 60°C result is the key signal for the "compostable cup with hot coffee" pathway: PLA's glass transition temperature is approximately 55-60°C, and above it the polymer softens and migration accelerates by two to three orders of magnitude. This study is the empirical basis for the hot-beverage multiplier in the personal factors section.
    Independence
    Independent migration study by Japan's National Institute of Health Sciences; uses standard LC/MS quantification and does not depend on the Conn 1995 expert review or the Auras 2004 polymer overview.
  3. [3] Macromolecular Bioscience / Auras, Harte & Selke — An overview of polylactides as packaging materials Verified
    An overview of polylactides as packaging materials
    Statistic
    The amount of lactic acid and its derivatives that migrate to food simulant solutions from PLA is much lower than any of the current average dietary lactic acid intake values allowed by several governmental agencies
    Excerpt
    “"The amount of lactic acid and its derivatives that migrate to food simulant solutions from PLA is much lower than any of the current average dietary lactic acid intake values allowed by several governmental agencies. Thus, PLA is safe for use in fabricating articles for contact with food." ”
    Source data from
    2004-09-13
    Accessed
    2026-05-30 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Auras, Harte & Selke synthesized the published migration and barrier-property data on PLA packaging across temperatures and food-simulant conditions. Their summary conclusion — that PLA migration is dwarfed by allowed dietary lactic acid intake from naturally occurring sources (yogurt, fermented foods, endogenous metabolism) — provides the dose-context that makes the migration measurements meaningful. Used here alongside Conn and Mutsuga to triangulate the polymer-side safety conclusion.
    Independence
    Independent peer-reviewed review by Michigan State University packaging researchers; synthesizes Conn 1995, Mutsuga et al., and other primary data but reaches its conclusion through its own analytical framework.
  4. [4] Environmental Pollution / Zimmermann, Göttlich, Oehlmann, Wagner & Völker — What are the drivers of microplastic toxicity? Comparing the toxicity of plastic chemicals and particles to Daphnia magna Verified
    What are the drivers of microplastic toxicity? Comparing the toxicity of plastic chemicals and particles to Daphnia magna
    Statistic
    Bio-based and biodegradable plastics, including PLA, can be as toxic in ecotoxicology assays as conventional plastics; the study attributes PVC's effects to its chemicals but found PUR and PLA effects were induced by the particle itself rather than extractable chemicals
    Excerpt
    “"The latter indicates that bio-based and biodegradable plastics can be as toxic as their conventional counterparts." ”
    Source data from
    2020-12-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-30 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Zimmermann et al. tested PLA alongside PVC and polyurethane in Daphnia magna assays and found that bio-based and biodegradable plastics can be as toxic as their conventional counterparts. The authors attribute PVC's effects to the chemicals in the material, but note that "effects of PUR and PLA plastics were induced by the mere particle" — for PLA the toxicity was driven by the particle itself rather than by extractable chemicals or additives. This is cited here only for the top-line finding that "compostable" labeling does not guarantee a plastic is less toxic than conventional material. The assay is ecotoxicological, not a human-exposure study, so the finding is not directly convertible to consumer risk, and it is not used to quantify additive-migration risk from PLA blends — the polymer-vs-blend evidence gap captured in the uncertainty band rests on the thinness of public migration data for commercial PLA-blend formulations, not on this assay.
    Independence
    Independent academic ecotoxicology study by Goethe University Frankfurt; methodologically separate from the FDA regulatory framework and from the Conn, Mutsuga, and Auras polymer-migration studies cited above.
  5. [5] International Food Information Council (IFIC) — Confidence in food safety hits record low: IFIC 2025 Food & Health Survey
    Confidence in food safety hits record low: IFIC 2025 Food & Health Survey

    See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

    Statistic
    47% of US adults rank cancer-causing chemicals among their top-3 food safety concerns; 46% rank pesticide residues; foodborne illness leads at 50%
    Excerpt
    “"Foodborne illness from bacteria, such as E. coli, Salmonella, or Listeria, tops the list of consumer food safety concerns, with half of Americans (50%) ranking it among their top three. Cancer-causing chemicals (47%), pesticides (46%), and heavy metals (41%) follow closely." ”
    Source data from
    2025-05-21
    Accessed
    2026-05-30 · archived copy
    Calculation
    IFIC commissioned an annual survey of 3,000 US adults aged 18-80, fielded March 13-27, 2025 and weighted to US Current Population Survey demographics. The 47% cancer-causing-chemicals figure is the broadest umbrella that includes packaging-derived chemical concerns, of which PLA and compostable packaging is a small subset. Used as the perceived-side anchor; not used in the normalized probability calculation.
    Independence
    IFIC is an industry-supported nonprofit; methodology and weighting are publicly disclosed. Used here only for the perceived-side concern level, not for any safety or migration claim.

434 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Skipping care over ICE fear — 1 in 7.1 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Anxiety disorder — 1 in 3.2 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Job loss & depression — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Silent hypertension — 1 in 2.7 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.9 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 Car-crash injury — 1 in 2.6 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.3 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 9.8 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Iron gap (women) — 1 in 3.9 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Magnesium gap — 1 in 1.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Child head lice — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Currency collapse — 1 in 5.6 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Subprime auto-loan repossession — 1 in 5.0 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 BNPL missed payment — 1 in 2.4 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Prolonged grid blackout — 1 in 2.0 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.7 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Problem-tenant loss — 1 in 1.8 LASIK complications — 1 in 100 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Drug overdose — 1 in 56 Gas-stove asthma in a child — 1 in 50 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Wisdom-tooth surgery — 1 in 22 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 20 Parkinson's — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 PTSD — 1 in 15 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Soda and diabetes — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Parent death/disability — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 26 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 50 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Child crash injury — 1 in 27 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 E-scooter injury — 1 in 10 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 37 Knife-involved assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Keyless relay car theft — 1 in 13 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 B12 deficiency — 1 in 28 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 14 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Child swallows object (ER) — 1 in 91 Life-threatening birth (US) — 1 in 61 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 36 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Dying without heir — 1 in 100 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Losing SNAP under 2025 work rules — 1 in 18 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 NAION (Ozempic) — 1 in 909 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 GLP-1 anesthesia aspiration — 1 in 613 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Too much caffeine — 1 in 366 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Heat-triggered preterm birth — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Tick-borne encephalitis — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 109 HIV diagnosis — 1 in 105 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 709 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 159 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 357 Homicide — 1 in 339 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 278 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Infant fall — 1 in 500 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 103 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 909 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Student visa revocation — 1 in 263 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Lightning home fire — 1 in 461 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Child nicotine-pouch ingestion — 1 in 7,937 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Listeria from deli meat — 1 in 6,061 Serious E. coli from fresh produce — 1 in 4,831 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Fish bone injury — 1 in 1,429 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 4,545 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Pool drowning — 1 in 5,882 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 SIDS — 1 in 2,398 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Flu brain swelling in a child (IAE/ANE) — 1 in 100,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Locally-acquired dengue (continental US) — 1 in 66,667 Anesthesia death — 1 in 45,662 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Vibrio vulnificus wound infection — 1 in 32,051 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Post-crash car fire — 1 in 25,000 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,576 Car submersion — 1 in 16,667 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Runway near-miss — 1 in 13,699 Acid attack — 1 in 94,340 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Post-hurricane heat death — 1 in 20,000 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 29,155 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 13,889 Lead-tainted cinnamon pouch — 1 in 40,000 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant car-seat asphyxia — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Forward-facing toddler death — 1 in 26,738 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Death in ICE custody — 1 in 17,065 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Crocodile attack — 1 in 337,838 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Whole-grape choking — 1 in 625,000 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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