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Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds that giving an infant paracetamol prophylactically at vaccination blunts the immune response to the vaccine?

Lifetime probability · activity

~26% reduction in vaccine antibody GMC per vaccination series with prophylactic paracetamol

26% lifetime chance

Most people underestimate this.

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Kids · reviewed 2026-05-16
Evidence quality 4.13/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
3/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
5/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
4/5
D6 Prose
4/5
D7 Perception honesty
3/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.13/5
Direct evidence
Source Government statistic · US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
lifetime, activity-specific each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 1.0 1 in 7.7

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

  1. Your factors
A small dropper bottle of infant medicine drops beside a vaccine syringe, flat vector illustration in muted tones.

Perceived

The intuition is almost universally pro-medication. Parents who pre-dose their infant with paracetamol before a vaccination appointment believe they are being thoughtful and protective — softening the expected fever and distress so the baby suffers less. The idea that this common, seemingly benign practice could reduce the very immunity the vaccine is designed to confer does not register in most parental mental models. No large-scale survey specifically asks whether parents anticipate any downside to prophylactic antipyretics around vaccination, so this is flagged as intuition — but the qualitative direction is clear: the perceived risk of prophylactic paracetamol is near-zero, and the perceived benefit is real fever prevention.

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~26% lower anti-HBs antibody GMC (adults, hepatitis B vaccine, prophylactic vs. no paracetamol)

healthy adults aged 18–48 receiving hepatitis B vaccination series; prophylactic paracetamol group vs. control group (Doedée et al. 2014 PLoS One, n=496)

Show derivation

The normalized figure represents the magnitude of antibody blunting rather than a binary event probability. Doedée et al. (2014, PLoS One) is the most precisely quantified single source: prophylactic paracetamol (given at vaccination, not reactively) reduced anti-HBs geometric mean concentration by 26% versus no paracetamol in a 496-person adult RCT (5768 mIU/mL in controls vs. 4257 mIU/mL in the prophylactic group, p=0.048). Therapeutic paracetamol (given reactively, 6+ hours after vaccination) had no significant effect (p=0.34), establishing timing as the decisive variable. In the foundational infant RCT (Prymula et al. 2009, Lancet, n=459 Czech infants), prophylactic paracetamol reduced antibody GMCs for all 10 pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes plus Hib, diphtheria, tetanus, and pertactin after the primary series, with persistence to the booster for several antigens. Seroprotection thresholds were maintained for most antigens in most studies; the one documented instance of seroprotection itself being significantly reduced is for serotype 6B in the Prymula 2009 infant cohort (exact % not published in the abstract). Wysocki et al. (2017, Vaccine) confirmed GMC reduction for 5 of 13 PCV13 serotypes but maintained seroprotection for all antigens. The 0.26 point estimate anchors to the Doedée 2014 HBV figure as the best single-antigen quantification; the probability of experiencing measurable GMC blunting for at least one antigen across a full infant primary series is effectively certain based on consistent RCT findings, but whether this translates to below-seroprotection titers for any individual child cannot be derived from the available abstract- level data. Uncertainty band 0.05–0.80 reflects the spread between the "some blunting is near-certain" upper edge and the "clinical vaccine failure is rare" lower edge of the evidence.

Caveats: The entry documents a real and consistent finding — prophylactic paracetamol at …

The entry documents a real and consistent finding — prophylactic paracetamol at the time of vaccination reduces antibody GMCs for multiple vaccine antigens in every RCT that has tested this — but the clinical magnitude is uncertain. Most children in the published studies still achieved accepted seroprotection thresholds; the concern is about antibody durability and potential long-term protection breadth rather than immediate vaccine failure. The critical variable is timing: therapeutic paracetamol given reactively when the child actually develops fever (6+ hours after vaccination) does not produce the same blunting effect in either the Doedée 2014 adult trial or the Wysocki 2017 infant trial. Ibuprofen has a different blunting profile from paracetamol — it spares most pneumococcal serotypes in Wysocki 2017 but reduces pertussis and tetanus responses. The UK is a notable exception: NHS guidelines recommend three doses of paracetamol after (not before) the MenB vaccine at 8 and 12 weeks because the MenB combination produces fever in over 50% of infants and the JCVI found no immunogenicity effect of post-vaccination paracetamol with that specific schedule. No published trial has demonstrated an increase in actual vaccine-preventable disease incidence in children whose parents gave prophylactic paracetamol — the evidence is at the surrogate endpoint (antibody titer) level.

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Compare to:

The fear most parents bring to vaccination is not of the vaccine but of the aftermath: the sore thigh, the inconsolable evening, the fever that arrives around midnight. Paracetamol given prophylactically — before the needle, or at the appointment — is the intuitive hedge. What the intuition misses is that this hedge trades one discomfort against something harder to see: a measurably lower antibody response to the very vaccine just given. Prymula and colleagues’ 2009 Lancet RCT in 459 Czech infants found reduced antibody geometric mean concentrations for all ten pneumococcal conjugate vaccine serotypes plus Hib, diphtheria, tetanus, and pertactin when paracetamol was given prophylactically — with serotype 6B being the only antigen where the seroprotection rate itself (not just the titer level) dropped significantly below controls. A separate adult trial (Doedée et al. 2014, PLoS One, n=496, hepatitis B vaccine) gave the cleanest quantified figure: a 26% lower anti-HBs GMC in the prophylactic group versus no paracetamol (4,257 vs. 5,768 mIU/mL, p=0.048). Therapeutic paracetamol — given only when fever actually appeared — produced no significant GMC difference in the same trial.

The mechanism is still being worked out, but the leading hypothesis involves suppression of inflammatory signaling that is part of the normal post-injection immune cascade — fever being a feature of that cascade, not a mere side-effect. Suppressing the fever suppresses part of the response that produces the antibodies. The CDC now advises against routine prophylactic antipyretics at vaccination specifically because of this, guidance that was updated after the Prymula findings became established. None of this applies to therapeutic use: if a child develops fever after the shot, giving paracetamol reactively is well-supported and does not appear to blunt the immune response.

Where the concern is most and least pronounced: the documented finding applies to prophylactic dosing (given at or before vaccination) with paracetamol — the temporal specificity matters. Ibuprofen has a partially different blunting profile and spares most pneumococcal serotypes in Wysocki’s 2017 replication. Most children in the published trials still cleared the accepted seroprotection thresholds — the outcome measured is antibody level, not vaccine-preventable disease incidence — so the clinical magnitude is real but not yet translatable into a clean case-fatality or disease-probability figure. The UK is a specific evidence-based exception: NHS guidance recommends paracetamol after (not before) the MenB vaccine at 8 and 12 weeks because that particular combination produces fever in more than half of infants, and the relevant immunogenicity studies found no blunting under that post-vaccination protocol.

Giving paracetamol prophylactically at the time of vaccination lowered the antibody response by about 26% in a controlled trial. Dosing reactively a few hours later showed no significant effect; timing, not the drug itself, is the variable.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

3/4 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] The Lancet (Prymula R et al.) — Effect of prophylactic paracetamol administration at time of vaccination on febrile reactions and antibody responses in children: two open-label, randomised controlled trials Verified
    Effect of prophylactic paracetamol administration at time of vaccination on febrile reactions and antibody responses in children: two open-label, randomised controlled trials
    Statistic
    Fever ≥38°C: 42% (paracetamol) vs. 66% (control) after primary series; antibody GMCs significantly lower in the prophylactic paracetamol group for all 10 pneumococcal serotypes, protein D, anti-PRP (Hib), anti-diphtheria, anti-tetanus, and anti-pertactin after primary vaccination; seroprotection for serotype 6B significantly lower in paracetamol group
    Excerpt
    “"Although febrile reactions significantly decreased, prophylactic administration of antipyretic drugs at the time of vaccination should not be routinely recommended since antibody responses to several vaccine antigens were reduced." ”
    Source data from
    2009-10-17
    Accessed
    2026-05-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Prymula 2009 is the foundational RCT for this finding: 459 healthy infants randomized to prophylactic paracetamol (three doses every 6–8 hours post-vaccination) vs. no prophylactic treatment across two consecutive trials (primary series + booster). The fever reduction (42% vs. 66%) confirms the drug works for its stated purpose, making the antibody-blunting finding all the more counterintuitive. The abstract confirms significance for all 10 pneumococcal serotypes plus 4 bacterial antigens; the specific GMC percentage reductions per serotype are in the paywalled full text. Serotype 6B is the only antigen for which seroprotection itself (not just GMC) was significantly lower in the paracetamol group — the most clinically concerning finding. Used as the primary anchor for the consistent-blunting-in-infants evidence.
    Independence
    Prymula 2009 is an independent prospective RCT, distinct from the Doedée 2014 HBV adult study below (different population, different vaccine, different lead investigator and centre); methodology is independently verifiable.
  2. [2] PLoS One (Doedée AMCM et al.) — Effects of Prophylactic and Therapeutic Paracetamol Treatment during Vaccination on Hepatitis B Antibody Levels in Adults: Two Open-Label, Randomized Controlled Trials Verified
    Effects of Prophylactic and Therapeutic Paracetamol Treatment during Vaccination on Hepatitis B Antibody Levels in Adults: Two Open-Label, Randomized Controlled Trials
    Statistic
    Anti-HBs GMC at one month post-second booster: 5768 mIU/mL (control) vs. 4257 mIU/mL (prophylactic paracetamol), a 26% reduction, p=0.048; therapeutic paracetamol: 4958 mIU/mL, not significant (p=0.34); all groups maintained seroprotection (≥10 IU/L) after full series
    Excerpt
    “"Only prophylactic paracetamol treatment, and not therapeutic treatment, during vaccination has a negative influence on the antibody concentration after hepatitis B vaccination in adults. These findings prompt to consider therapeutic instead of prophylactic treatment to ensure maximal vaccination efficacy and retain the possibility to treat pain and fever after vaccination." ”
    Source data from
    2014-06-04
    Accessed
    2026-05-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    This RCT provides the cleanest quantified figure: 26% reduction in anti-HBs GMC when paracetamol is given prophylactically (at time of vaccination) vs. not given. The key methodological contribution is the three-arm design (prophylactic, therapeutic, control), which isolates timing as the causal variable. Therapeutic paracetamol given 6–8 hours after vaccination produced no statistically significant GMC difference (p=0.34). Since all participants in both groups maintained seroprotection, the concern is about antibody durability and future protection breadth, not immediate vaccine failure. The 26% GMC reduction at one month post-series is the most citable single number in this literature and is used as the native stat anchor.
    Independence
    Conducted in adults (18–48 years) with hepatitis B vaccine, methodologically distinct from the Prymula 2009 infant pneumococcal study. Different lead author (Doedée), independent RCT with separate enrolment, randomisation, and vaccine type. Confirms the finding replicates across age groups and vaccine platforms.
  3. [3] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — Vaccine Administration — Chapter 6 (CDC Pink Book) Verified
    Vaccine Administration — Chapter 6 (CDC Pink Book)
    Statistic
    CDC: prophylactic use of antipyretics at time of vaccination is not recommended; some studies suggest these medications might suppress immune response to some vaccine antigens
    Excerpt
    “"The prophylactic use of antipyretics (e.g., acetaminophen and ibuprofen) before or at the time of vaccination is not recommended. There is no evidence these will decrease the pain associated with an injection. In addition, some studies have suggested these medications might suppress the immune response to some vaccine antigens." ”
    Source data from
    2024-01-01
    Accessed
    2026-05-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    CDC explicitly advises against prophylactic antipyretic use at vaccination in the authoritative Pink Book, citing immune-response suppression. This guidance was updated after the Prymula findings became established. The CDC distinguishes prophylactic use (not recommended) from therapeutic use (permissible when symptoms develop). Used as the primary authoritative public-health guidance anchor confirming the clinical concern is recognised by a major national immunisation programme.
    Independence
    Independent government guidance drawing on the broader immunisation literature; not a reanalysis of the Prymula RCT data.
  4. [4] Vaccine (Wysocki J et al.) — A randomized study of fever prophylaxis and the immunogenicity of routine pediatric vaccinations
    A randomized study of fever prophylaxis and the immunogenicity of routine pediatric vaccinations
    Statistic
    Prophylactic paracetamol reduced IgG for 5 of 13 PCV13 serotypes (3, 4, 5, 6B, 23F); ibuprofen reduced antibody responses to pertussis FHA and tetanus; delayed administration (6–8 hours post-vaccination) showed no effect on vaccine responses for either drug; seroprotection maintained (≥0.35 µg/mL) across all groups
    Excerpt
    “"Prophylactic antipyretics affect immune responses to vaccines; these effects vary depending on the vaccine, antipyretic agent, and time of administration." ”
    Source data from
    2017-04-04
    Accessed
    2026-05-03 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Wysocki 2017 replicates and refines the Prymula 2009 finding with PCV13 (13-valent rather than 10-valent) and includes ibuprofen as a separate arm. Key additional findings: (1) the blunting is restricted to 5 of 13 serotypes for paracetamol with PCV13, versus all 10 serotypes in Prymula 2009 — indicating vaccine formulation matters; (2) delayed dosing (6+ hours after vaccination) removes the blunting effect entirely; (3) ibuprofen blunts pertussis and tetanus but spares most pneumococcal serotypes. The maintained seroprotection in all groups is reassuring for clinical outcomes but does not negate the concern about antibody level durability over time. Used as the key replication study and timing-evidence source.
    Independence
    Independent Polish RCT with distinct enrolment, vaccine brand, and antipyretic arms from both the Prymula 2009 and Doedée 2014 studies. Converges on the same core finding via a different methodology.

434 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Skipping care over ICE fear — 1 in 7.1 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Anxiety disorder — 1 in 3.2 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Job loss & depression — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Silent hypertension — 1 in 2.7 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.9 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 Car-crash injury — 1 in 2.6 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.3 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 9.8 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Iron gap (women) — 1 in 3.9 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Magnesium gap — 1 in 1.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Child head lice — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Currency collapse — 1 in 5.6 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Subprime auto-loan repossession — 1 in 5.0 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 BNPL missed payment — 1 in 2.4 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Prolonged grid blackout — 1 in 2.0 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.7 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Problem-tenant loss — 1 in 1.8 LASIK complications — 1 in 100 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Drug overdose — 1 in 56 Gas-stove asthma in a child — 1 in 50 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Wisdom-tooth surgery — 1 in 22 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 20 Parkinson's — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 PTSD — 1 in 15 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Soda and diabetes — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Parent death/disability — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 26 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 50 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Child crash injury — 1 in 27 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 E-scooter injury — 1 in 10 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 37 Knife-involved assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Keyless relay car theft — 1 in 13 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 B12 deficiency — 1 in 28 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 14 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Child swallows object (ER) — 1 in 91 Life-threatening birth (US) — 1 in 61 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 36 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Dying without heir — 1 in 100 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Losing SNAP under 2025 work rules — 1 in 18 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 NAION (Ozempic) — 1 in 909 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 GLP-1 anesthesia aspiration — 1 in 613 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Too much caffeine — 1 in 366 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Heat-triggered preterm birth — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Tick-borne encephalitis — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 109 HIV diagnosis — 1 in 105 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 709 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 159 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 357 Homicide — 1 in 339 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 278 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Infant fall — 1 in 500 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 103 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 909 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Student visa revocation — 1 in 263 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Lightning home fire — 1 in 461 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Child nicotine-pouch ingestion — 1 in 7,937 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Listeria from deli meat — 1 in 6,061 Serious E. coli from fresh produce — 1 in 4,831 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Fish bone injury — 1 in 1,429 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 4,545 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Pool drowning — 1 in 5,882 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 SIDS — 1 in 2,398 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Flu brain swelling in a child (IAE/ANE) — 1 in 100,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Locally-acquired dengue (continental US) — 1 in 66,667 Anesthesia death — 1 in 45,662 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Vibrio vulnificus wound infection — 1 in 32,051 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Post-crash car fire — 1 in 25,000 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,576 Car submersion — 1 in 16,667 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Runway near-miss — 1 in 13,699 Acid attack — 1 in 94,340 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Post-hurricane heat death — 1 in 20,000 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 29,155 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 13,889 Lead-tainted cinnamon pouch — 1 in 40,000 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant car-seat asphyxia — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Forward-facing toddler death — 1 in 26,738 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Death in ICE custody — 1 in 17,065 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Crocodile attack — 1 in 337,838 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Whole-grape choking — 1 in 625,000 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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