Evidence quality 4.25/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 4/5
- D2 Source authority
- 4/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 4/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
- Your factors
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Mail theft and check washing have surged since 2020 but remain largely invisible to people who have not been directly affected. Most Americans who learned about mail fraud in childhood think of it as a dated crime involving elderly targets; the modern version -- organized rings stealing USPS collection box deposits and washing checks -- is less widely known. No rigorous national survey isolates worry specifically about mailed-check fraud.
Rough estimate: Most people would put annual personal risk at under 1%; the aggregate data suggests this is roughly calibrated for the population average
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
299,020 mail theft complaints to USPIS, March 2020 - February 2021
US households
Show derivation
The US Postal Inspection Service (USPIS) received 299,020 mail theft complaints between March 2020 and February 2021 (a 161 percent increase over the prior 12 months). There are approximately 130 million US households. Annual probability per household: 299,020 / 130,000,000 = 0.0023. Compounded over 59 adult years: 1 − (1 − 0.0023)^59 ≈ 0.127 ≈ 0.13. This is an upper-bound figure because (1) a single victim may file multiple complaints; and (2) this 12-month window captured the early pandemic surge near peak; subsequent rates have declined with enforcement. Check fraud SARs (FinCEN data) provide a separate line of evidence: 680,000 check fraud SARs were filed in 2022 by financial institutions, roughly double the 350,000 in 2021. Not all check fraud is mail-related, but FinCEN specifically attributed the surge primarily to mail theft. Given under-reporting, the true victimization rate likely exceeds the complaint count.
Caveats: The 1 in 8 lifetime figure is derived from USPIS complaint data for the 12-month…
The 1 in 8 lifetime figure is derived from USPIS complaint data for the 12-month window March 2020 to February 2021, which captured the early-pandemic surge near peak. The FinCEN SAR count (680,000 in 2022) is not directly comparable -- it measures financial institution reports, not individual victims. Both the USPIS complaint rate and FinCEN SARs are expected to decline from the 2022 peak as enforcement intensifies and physical check usage continues to fall. The estimate also conflates victimization (mail stolen) with successful fraud (check actually washed and cashed); not every mail theft incident results in financial loss. People who do not mail paper checks face near-zero risk from this specific fraud vector. Transition to electronic payments is the most effective personal mitigation.
Related risks
Other risks on similar themes — for exploring related fears.
Keyless relay car theft
What are the odds of having your keyless car stolen by a relay (signal-amplification) attack?
What are the odds of a serious incident when hitchhiking?
What are the odds of a serious incident when hitchhiking?
Pick challenger
Mail theft and mailed-check fraud surged dramatically in the early 2020s, driven by organized criminal rings that stole USPS arrow keys and used them to empty blue collection boxes. FinCEN reported that check fraud Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) filed by US financial institutions nearly doubled from 350,000 in 2021 to 680,000 in 2022, with FinCEN specifically attributing the surge to mail theft. The US Postal Inspection Service received 299,020 mail theft complaints between March 2020 and February 2021 — a 161 percent increase over the prior 12 months. Compounded over a lifetime at that complaint rate, the average US household faces roughly a 1 in 8 chance of encountering mail theft — though the current rate has declined from that peak.
The core scheme is technically simple: a paper check is stolen from a mailbox or collection box, then “washed” with common chemicals to remove the original ink. The fraudster rewrites the payee name and dollar amount before depositing it into a fraudulent account. Modern check paper contains security features but is not immune to washing, and many banks process checks before fraud is detected. Losses per incident scale with the size of the stolen check, from small personal payments to large business checks. FinCEN’s 2024 follow-up analysis of the SARs filed in the six months right after its alert (February-August 2023) found that 841 financial institutions had filed 15,417 reports describing more than $688 million in mail theft-related check fraud.
The crime is entirely preventable for those who transition to electronic payments. People who never mail paper checks face essentially no exposure to check washing fraud specifically. For those who do mail checks, the risk is disproportionately concentrated in urban areas and around blue collection boxes rather than staffed post office counters. The decline from the 2022 peak reflects both law enforcement pressure and the secular decline in paper check usage.
Related tidbits
Compounded across a lifetime, US household odds of a mail-theft or check-fraud incident run to about ~1 in 8 lifetime (US household, using FY2022 complaint rate). The crime reads as dated, yet the Postal Inspection Service logged roughly 299,000 mail-theft complaints in FY2022.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
-
[1] Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), US Department of the Treasury — FinCEN Alert on Nationwide Surge in Mail Theft-Related Check Fraud Schemes Targeting the U.S. Mail (FIN-2023-Alert003)
FinCEN Alert on Nationwide Surge in Mail Theft-Related Check Fraud Schemes Targeting the U.S. Mail (FIN-2023-Alert003)- Statistic
USPIS received 299,020 mail theft complaints from March 2020 through February 2021, a 161 percent increase over the same period a year earlier; check fraud SARs filed with FinCEN rose from over 350,000 in 2021 to over 680,000 in 2022 -- nearly double in one year- Excerpt
“"From March 2020 through February 2021, the USPIS received 299,020 mail theft complaints, which was an increase of 161 percent compared with the same period a year earlier. BSA reporting for check fraud has also increased in the past three years. In 2021, financial institutions filed more than 350,000 SARs to FinCEN to report potential check fraud, a 23 percent increase over the number of check fraud-related SARs filed in 2020. This upward trend continued into 2022, when the number of SARs related to check fraud reached over 680,000, nearly double the previous year's amount of filings." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-02-27
- Accessed
- 2026-07-11 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The 299,020 USPIS mail theft complaint figure (March 2020 through February 2021) used for the primary victimization estimate is stated verbatim in this alert document (FIN-2023-Alert003, page 1). SAR counts, by contrast, are filed by financial institutions, not by victims: a single fraud incident may generate multiple SARs, so the 680,000 SARs represent flagged suspicious transactions, not 680,000 distinct victims. The near-doubling year-over-year is used only for trend context.
- Independence
- FinCEN is the US Treasury financial intelligence unit. Its SAR data is collected from thousands of financial institutions independently of USPIS law enforcement complaints. The two datasets measure the same phenomenon from different vantage points (financial transaction monitoring vs victim reports), providing independent corroboration.
-
[2] Money Laundering Watch (reporting on FinCEN/USPIS joint alert) — FinCEN and USPS Issue Alert on Mail-Theft Check Fraud and SAR Filing Instructions
FinCEN and USPS Issue Alert on Mail-Theft Check Fraud and SAR Filing Instructions- Statistic
FinCEN and USPS jointly issued an alert on mail theft-related check fraud; criminals 'wash' stolen checks with chemicals to alter the payee and amount; check fraud SARs increased 23% in 2021 and nearly doubled in 2022, totaling 680,000 SARs- Excerpt
“"FinCEN issued a joint alert with the USPS discussing typologies, red flags, and reminders about SAR filings. Typically, criminals involved in these schemes 'wash' the checks (i.e., use chemicals to remove the original ink) to remove payee and check amount information and replace it with their own identities. Suspicious Activity Reports (SARs) for check fraud increased 23% in 2021 and nearly doubled in 2022, totaling 680,000 SARs for check fraud." ”
- Source data from
- 2023-03-01
- Accessed
- 2026-05-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- This source corroborates the FinCEN/USPIS joint alert and the 680,000 check fraud SAR figure for 2022, and describes the check-washing mechanism. It is used for scheme typology and trend corroboration. The 299,020 USPIS mail theft complaint figure (March 2020-February 2021) used for the lifetime estimate is grounded in the primary FinCEN alert (the first source above), not in this article, which does not state that complaint count.
- Independence
- Money Laundering Watch independently reported on the joint FinCEN/USPIS alert, citing the FinCEN check fraud SAR data and describing the check-washing typology. It represents an independent editorial synthesis of the government alert rather than a primary government report itself.
-
[3] PYMNTS.com — FinCEN Says Banks Reported $688 Million in Mail Theft-Related Check Fraud
FinCEN Says Banks Reported $688 Million in Mail Theft-Related Check Fraud- Statistic
FinCEN's follow-up Financial Trend Analysis, released September 9, 2024, found that 841 financial institutions filed 15,417 Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) reports describing more than $688 million in mail theft-related check fraud during the six-month period from February 2023 to August 2023.- Excerpt
“"Mail theft-related check fraud amounted to more than $688 million in a recent six-month period. [...] During the period, FinCEN received reports of that type of fraud in 15,417 Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) reports from 841 financial institutions, according to the release." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-09-09
- Accessed
- 2026-07-03 · archived copy
- Calculation
- This is FinCEN's follow-up Financial Trend Analysis of the SARs filed in the six months immediately after the original February 2023 alert (the first source above), covering February-August 2023. The analysis itself was released in September 2024, over a year after that data window closed. 841 institutions filing $688 million in six months is consistent with the 680,000 SARs filed economy-wide in 2022 cited in the sources above.
- Independence
- PYMNTS is an independent financial-news outlet reporting on FinCEN's own released Financial Trend Analysis; distinct from the Money Laundering Watch article above, which covers only the earlier 2023 alert.