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Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds of an infant dying from co-sleeping or bed-sharing?

Lifetime probability · subgroup

~1 in 36

(per infant, first year, higher-risk configuration: bottle-fed + both parents smoking + maternal alcohol use)

2.8% lifetime chance

Most people overestimate this.

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Kids · reviewed 2026-04-18
Evidence quality 4.5/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
5/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
4/5
D6 Prose
5/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.5/5
Direct evidence
Source Government statistic · US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)
lifetime, subgroup each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 3.5 1 in 73

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

  1. Your factors

≈ As likely as

A minimal flat illustration of a bed with a small pillow beside it, rendered in muted tones against a soft background.

Perceived

Bed-sharing occupies a peculiar spot in new-parent risk perception: it is simultaneously widespread practice and official taboo. The AAP recommends against it; attachment-parenting communities promote it; exhausted parents do it whether or not they planned to. Most parents who bed-share sense that the risk is real but small, while most who avoid it believe they are dodging something meaningfully dangerous. Neither group could produce a number. The emotional weight comes partly from conflation with SIDS (see the sibling entry), even though the mechanisms differ.

Rough estimate: Most parents sense elevated risk but cannot quantify it; estimates vary wildly by parenting philosophy

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~23 SIDS deaths per 100,000 live births in the first year of life, for a breastfed infant of non-smoking, non-drinking parents who bed-share

breastfed infants of non-smoking parents with no maternal alcohol or drug use, bed-sharing

Show derivation

The native rate (1 in ~4,348; 0.23 per 1,000 live births) is Carpenter et al. 2013's own modeled first-year absolute risk for the lowest-risk bed-sharing group: breastfed infant, neither parent smoking, no maternal alcohol or drug use (Table 4, "minimum risk" row). This is a cumulative first-year-of-life rate, not a per-night figure — the paper reports no per-night estimate anywhere. The normalized headline uses the highest row modeled in that same table: bottle-fed infant, both parents smoking, maternal alcohol use, still for an otherwise "normal" mother (26-30 years old, second child, normal birth weight) — predicted first-year bed-sharing rate 27.5 per 1,000 (~1 in 36). Carpenter et al.'s discussion section separately models a more extreme combination of demographic and behavioral risk factors (18-year-old mother, 2.25 kg bottle-fed infant, both parents smoking, maternal alcohol use) at 125 per 1,000 (12.5%, ~1 in 8) — the ceiling reported anywhere in the paper. That extreme figure is used as the top of the uncertainty band and in regional_breakdown rather than as the headline, since it stacks demographic risk factors (young maternal age, low birth weight) on top of the behavioral ones. All three figures are Carpenter et al.'s own modeled outputs; none are compounded or re-derived by this entry.

Caveats: This entry is distinct from the sibling SIDS entry. SIDS is a diagnosis of exclu…

This entry is distinct from the sibling SIDS entry. SIDS is a diagnosis of exclusion that occurs regardless of sleep surface; bed-sharing deaths are primarily attributable to accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed (ASSB), a mechanistically different category even though both fall under the SUID umbrella. The baseline risk (~1 in 4,348; 0.23 per 1,000 live births in the first year of life) comes from Carpenter et al.'s modeled estimates, not direct measurement, and assumes the lowest-risk configuration; the source paper reports no per-night figure. Real-world bed-sharing is heterogeneous: a breastfeeding mother without alcohol or smoking faces a fundamentally different risk profile than a parent who smokes and drinks. The higher-risk figures in the normalized field and regional_breakdown are Carpenter et al.'s own modeled first-year rates for infants in each named risk category (bottle-fed plus parental smoking plus alcohol, and beyond that a stacked scenario adding young maternal age and low birth weight) — they are not extrapolated from a single occasional exposure and should not be read as the risk for a family that only occasionally bed-shares under low-risk conditions. CDC's ASSB category (~1,040 deaths in 2022) is the closest surveillance proxy for suffocation-mechanism deaths, but not all ASSB involves bed-sharing and not all bed-sharing deaths are coded as ASSB. Racial and socioeconomic disparities mirror those seen in SIDS: American Indian / Alaska Native and non-Hispanic Black infants are disproportionately represented in SUID data. This entry publishes risk estimates, not sleep recommendations; the AAP's clinical guidance is the appropriate reference for practice decisions.

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Compare to:

Bed-sharing kills infants primarily through suffocation and strangulation, not through the idiopathic mechanism behind SIDS. CDC counted roughly 1,040 accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed (ASSB) deaths among US infants in 2022, out of about 3,700 total sudden unexpected infant deaths. Carpenter et al.’s 2013 individual-level reanalysis of five major case-control studies modeled first-year cumulative SIDS risk directly: for a breastfed infant of non-smoking, non-drinking parents, bed-sharing risk over the first year of life is about 1 in 4,350 (0.23 per 1,000 live births), against 1 in 12,500 for the equivalent room-sharing infant. The paper reports no per-night figure. Its own highest-risk row — bottle-fed infant, both parents smoking, maternal alcohol use — reaches roughly 1 in 36 (27.5 per 1,000); a more extreme combination modeled separately (an 18-year-old mother, a low-birthweight bottle-fed infant, and both parents smoking and drinking) reaches 1 in 8, the ceiling the paper reports anywhere.

The spread between best case and worst case is almost entirely a function of which risk factors apply, not of bed-sharing itself. Blair et al.’s 2014 PLOS One analysis found no statistically significant association between bed-sharing and SIDS overall when smoking and alcohol were absent (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.6-2.0). Broken out by age, that hazard-free comparison was not quite significant for infants under three months (OR 1.6, CI 0.96-2.7) and was actually protective for infants three months and older (OR 0.1, CI 0.01-0.5), though the authors flag those older-infant numbers as small. Add a smoking parent and the odds ratio jumps to about 8.9 for infants under three months; add alcohol and the effective multiplier reaches roughly 18. Soft surfaces (couches and armchairs in particular) carry the highest suffocation risk of any sleep arrangement, bed-sharing or otherwise. The AAP’s 2022 safe sleep guidelines recommend against all bed-sharing, but the underlying data show that the recommendation is driven overwhelmingly by the high-risk tail rather than the low-risk baseline.

The numbers here should not be read interchangeably with the sibling SIDS entry. SIDS is a diagnosis of exclusion that occurs on any sleep surface; bed-sharing deaths are mechanistically distinct (obstruction of the airway, overlay, entrapment in bedding). Both fall under the SUID umbrella, and CDC coding sometimes shifts deaths between the two categories, but the risk factors and the interventions differ. Racial and socioeconomic disparities in SUID data are substantial: American Indian / Alaska Native and non-Hispanic Black infants appear at roughly 2-3x the average rate. Families who bed-share occasionally on a firm surface without other risk factors face a materially different probability than those captured in the high-risk tail of the epidemiology.

Related tidbits

The risk depends almost entirely on context. For a breastfed infant with no other risk factors, bed-sharing carries about a 1 in 16,000 death risk per night. In the highest-risk scenario, smoking plus alcohol plus soft bedding, the first-year risk rises to roughly 1 in 44.

Read more → △ gap

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

  1. [1] BMJ Open — Carpenter, McGarvey, Mitchell, Tappin, Vennemann, Smuk, Carpenter — Bed sharing when parents do not smoke: is there a risk of SIDS? An individual level analysis of five major case-control studies
    Bed sharing when parents do not smoke: is there a risk of SIDS? An individual level analysis of five major case-control studies
    Statistic
    Modeled first-year cumulative SIDS risk during bed-sharing: 0.23 per 1,000 live births for the lowest-risk group (breastfed, neither parent smoking, no maternal alcohol/drug use), rising to 27.5 per 1,000 for the highest-risk group modeled in the paper's main table (bottle-fed, both parents smoking, maternal alcohol use); a separate modeled scenario stacking young maternal age and low birth weight on top of those behavioral factors reaches 125 per 1,000. The paper reports no per-night estimate.
    Excerpt
    “"Bed sharing for sleep when the parents do not smoke or take alcohol or drugs increases the risk of SIDS. [...] The absolute risk estimates were very low at 0.08 per 1,000 live births for room sharing infants, rising to 0.23 per 1,000 when bed sharing occurred. [...] Table 4 shows that for room sharing breast-fed babies placed supine, and whose parents do not smoke and have no other risk factors, the SIDS rate is predicted to be 0.08 (0.05 to 0.14)/1000 live-births. This rate is predicted to increase by 2.7 times (1.4 to 5.3) to 0.23 (0.11 to 0.49)/1000 when bed sharing. [...] a 2.25 kg bottle-fed baby bed sharing with an 18-year-old mother, who smokes and regularly takes 2+ units of alcohol and whose partner also smokes, has a predicted SIDS rate of 125/1000, that is, 12.5% (see online supplementary table b)." ”
    Source data from
    2013-01-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Carpenter et al. pooled individual-level data from five major SIDS case-control studies (1,472 SIDS cases, 4,679 controls) and modeled predicted SIDS rates (Table 4) for a "normal" cohabiting mother aged 26-30 with a second normal-weight baby. All rates are CUMULATIVE FIRST-YEAR (ages 0 up to 1 year) absolute risks per 1,000 live births — the paper reports no per-night estimate anywhere. Minimum-risk row (breastfed, neither parent smoking, no alcohol): bed sharing 0.23 (0.11 to 0.49)/1000 live-births versus 0.08 (0.05 to 0.14)/1000 for room sharing (ratio 2.7). This 0.23/1000 (1 in ~4,348) is the native rate. The highest row modeled in the same table (bottle-fed, both parents smoking, maternal alcohol use, same "normal" mother profile): bed sharing 27.5 (10.4 to 68.4)/1000, used as the normalized headline (1 in ~36). A separate, more extreme combination modeled in the Discussion section (2.25 kg bottle-fed infant, 18-year-old mother who smokes and drinks 2+ units of alcohol, smoking partner) reaches 125/1000 (12.5%, ~1 in 8) — the ceiling reported anywhere in the paper, used as the top of the uncertainty band. None of these figures involve per-night compounding; they are the paper's own first-year model outputs.
  2. [2] PLOS One — Blair, Sidebotham, Pease, Fleming — Bed-Sharing in the Absence of Hazardous Circumstances: Is There a Risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome? An Analysis from Two Case-Control Studies Conducted in the UK
    Bed-Sharing in the Absence of Hazardous Circumstances: Is There a Risk of Sudden Infant Death Syndrome? An Analysis from Two Case-Control Studies Conducted in the UK
    Statistic
    Adjusted OR for SIDS/SUID with bed-sharing in the absence of hazards was not significant (OR=1.1, 95% CI 0.6-2.0); sofa-sharing OR=18.3 and alcohol >2 units OR=18.3; smoking for infants under 3 months OR=8.9
    Excerpt
    “"The multivariable risk associated with bed-sharing in the absence of these hazards was not significant overall (OR = 1.1 [95% CI: 0.6-2.0]), for infants less than 3 months old (OR = 1.6 [95% CI: 0.96-2.7]), and was in the direction of protection for older infants (OR = 0.1 [95% CI: 0.01-0.5]). [...] Sofa-sharing carried extremely high risk (OR=18.3). Co-sleeping with alcohol-intoxicated parents showed very elevated risk (OR=18.3). Parental smoking posed significant danger for infants under 3 months (OR=8.9)." ”
    Source data from
    2014-06-02
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Blair et al. reanalyzed two large UK case-control datasets. The OR of ~2.9 for bed-sharing in the absence of hazards (from the broader meta-analytic literature including Vennemann 2012) is used as the baseline multiplier. With parental smoking the OR rises to ~6.3; with alcohol and smoking combined the effective OR reaches ~18 — a similar order of magnitude to Carpenter et al.'s own bed-sharing "both smoke" multiplier (Table 3: ~15.6x at 3 months and over). These ORs are shown for context on how risk factors stack; they are not compounded against a per-night baseline to derive this entry's native/normalized headline figures, which come directly from Carpenter et al.'s own modeled first-year rates (see that source's calculation_notes). Age-stratified, the hazard-free bed-sharing OR was not significant overall (1.1, 95% CI 0.6-2.0) and not quite significant for infants under 3 months (1.6, CI 0.96-2.7), but was statistically significant and protective for infants 3 months and older (0.1, CI 0.01-0.5), though the source paper flags that older-infant subgroup as numerically small.
  3. [3] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) — Data and Statistics for SUID and SIDS
    Data and Statistics for SUID and SIDS

    See all 3 Likelier entries citing this source →

    Statistic
    In 2022, ~3,700 SUID deaths in the US; 1,040 classified as accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed (ASSB)
    Excerpt
    “"In 2022, there were about 3,700 sudden unexpected infant deaths (SUID) in the United States. These deaths occur among infants less than 1 year old and have no immediately obvious cause. [...] 1,040 deaths from accidental suffocation and strangulation in bed." ”
    Source data from
    2024-04-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    1,040 ASSB deaths out of ~3.67 million US live births in 2022 ≈ 28.3 per 100,000 live births, or roughly 1 in 3,530 infants in the first year of life. Not all ASSB deaths involve bed-sharing (some occur in cribs with soft bedding, car seats, or other surfaces), and not all bed-sharing deaths are classified as ASSB (some fall under SIDS or unknown cause). The ASSB figure provides an order-of-magnitude anchor for suffocation-mechanism deaths rather than a direct measure of bed-sharing risk.
    Independence
    CDC vital registration data. The same underlying NCHS mortality files inform the sibling SIDS entry and the AAP 2022 policy statement; treat as methodologically linked sources.
  4. [4] Pediatrics (American Academy of Pediatrics) — Moon, Carlin, Hand et al. — Sleep-Related Infant Deaths: Updated 2022 Recommendations for Reducing Infant Deaths in the Sleep Environment
    Sleep-Related Infant Deaths: Updated 2022 Recommendations for Reducing Infant Deaths in the Sleep Environment

    See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →

    Statistic
    AAP recommends against bed-sharing; ~3,500 US sleep-related infant deaths per year; bed-sharing identified as a modifiable risk factor
    Excerpt
    “"Each year in the United States, ∼3500 infants die of sleep-related infant deaths, including sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) [...] It is recommended that infants sleep on a separate, flat, noninclined sleep surface [...] It is recommended that infants not sleep on adult beds, couches, or armchairs." ”
    Source data from
    2022-07-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    AAP 2022 policy statement synthesizing the epidemiological literature. Provides the institutional recommendation context: bed-sharing is listed as a modifiable risk factor. The ~3,500 figure covers all sleep-related infant deaths (SIDS + ASSB + unknown), not bed-sharing specifically.
    Independence
    Policy synthesis drawing on the same Carpenter, Blair, and CDC datasets cited above; not an independent estimate.

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434 risks with measured probability
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Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Infant fall — 1 in 500 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 103 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 909 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Student visa revocation — 1 in 263 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Lightning home fire — 1 in 461 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Child nicotine-pouch ingestion — 1 in 7,937 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Listeria from deli meat — 1 in 6,061 Serious E. coli from fresh produce — 1 in 4,831 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Fish bone injury — 1 in 1,429 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 4,545 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Pool drowning — 1 in 5,882 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 SIDS — 1 in 2,398 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Flu brain swelling in a child (IAE/ANE) — 1 in 100,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Locally-acquired dengue (continental US) — 1 in 66,667 Anesthesia death — 1 in 45,662 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Vibrio vulnificus wound infection — 1 in 32,051 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Post-crash car fire — 1 in 25,000 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,576 Car submersion — 1 in 16,667 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Runway near-miss — 1 in 13,699 Acid attack — 1 in 94,340 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Post-hurricane heat death — 1 in 20,000 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 29,155 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 13,889 Lead-tainted cinnamon pouch — 1 in 40,000 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant car-seat asphyxia — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Forward-facing toddler death — 1 in 26,738 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Death in ICE custody — 1 in 17,065 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Crocodile attack — 1 in 337,838 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Whole-grape choking — 1 in 625,000 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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