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Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds of being harmed by an unsafe imported consumer product?

Lifetime probability

~1 in 565

0.2% lifetime chance

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Health · reviewed 2026-04-19
Evidence quality 4.38/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
5/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
3/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
4/5
D6 Prose
5/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.38/5
Source Government statistic · US Consumer Product Safety Commission
lifetime, US adult each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 113 1 in 1,883

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

  1. Your factors
A small cardboard shipping box on a neutral surface, flat vector illustration in muted tones.

Perceived

The rise of Temu, Shein, and AliExpress as mainstream shopping platforms has rekindled a fear that predates e-commerce: that cheap imported goods are dangerous. Headlines about lead in children's jewelry, PFAS in clothing, exploding hoverboards, and banned crib bumpers still listed for sale create a perception of systemic regulatory failure. Seoul Metropolitan Government testing in 2024 found a Temu children's coat with 622 times the legal limit of phthalate plasticizers. A Toy Association study found 89% of toys purchased from Shein and Temu presented significant safety concerns. The de minimis shipping loophole — allowing packages under $800 to enter the US with minimal inspection — reinforces the sense that these products bypass the safety net entirely. Most consumers who encounter these stories conclude that ordering from budget e-commerce platforms carries a real chance of injury or poisoning, particularly for children.

Rough estimate: Many consumers treat budget e-commerce products as carrying a meaningful risk of injury or toxic exposure

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

~869 injuries from recalled consumer products in 2024 (US PIRG / CPSC data); ~15.1 million total product-related ER visits in 2024

US residents purchasing from all retail channels including online marketplaces

Show derivation

Estimating harm specifically from "unsafe imported products" is difficult because CPSC injury data does not cleanly separate injuries caused by product defects from injuries caused by user behavior, and does not track country of origin consistently in NEISS. The 15.1 million annual ER visits for consumer product injuries (NEISS 2024) include falls from stairs, cuts from kitchen knives, and other use-related injuries that have nothing to do with manufacturing defects or import safety. The PIRG figure of 869 injuries from products recalled in 2024 dramatically undercounts because it includes only injuries reported through the recall process. A rough estimate: the PIRG report attributes the 2024 surge substantially to China (a China-based company was the responsible party for 42 of the 63 CPSC warnings issued in 2024) and to overseas e-commerce channels. If we estimate ~10,000 injuries per year attributable to genuine product safety defects (a fraction of total ER visits, backed by recall reports, CPSC investigations, and incident reports), that gives ~3 per 100,000 per year. Over 59 adult-remaining years: 1 - (1 - 3e-5)^59 ≈ 1.77e-3, or about 1 in 565. This estimate is highly uncertain because the denominator (defect-attributable injuries) is not directly measured by any federal system. The uncertainty band spans an order of magnitude in both directions.

Caveats: This entry addresses physical injury and toxic chemical exposure from consumer p…

This entry addresses physical injury and toxic chemical exposure from consumer product safety defects, not dissatisfaction with product quality, counterfeiting, or data privacy concerns associated with budget e-commerce platforms. The normalized probability is a rough estimate because no federal surveillance system cleanly tracks injuries attributable to imported product defects as distinct from user-error injuries with any consumer product. The 1-in-565 lifetime figure includes all product-defect injuries, not just those from imported goods or e-commerce platforms specifically. Most consumer product injuries treated in emergency departments (falls from furniture, cuts from tools, burns from cookware) result from foreseeable use, not manufacturing defects. The true rate of injury from genuinely unsafe imported products is almost certainly lower than the headline figure but is not directly measurable from available data.

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Compare to:

The product safety story is less about Temu specifically and more about a structural enforcement gap that has been widening since the early 2010s. The US de minimis threshold allows packages valued under $800 to enter the country with minimal customs inspection. In 2013, roughly 140 million such shipments crossed the border; by 2023, that figure exceeded one billion — nearly 4 million packages a day, per a 2024 White House accounting of the de minimis exemption’s growth. CPSC’s inspection capacity did not scale with the volume. The result is that a meaningful fraction of consumer products now reaches American households without ever passing through the regulatory system designed to catch defective goods. When Seoul Metropolitan Government tested 26 items of children’s winter clothing from Shein, Temu, and AliExpress in 2024, seven contained chemicals exceeding safety standards — a single Temu jacket registered phthalates at 622 times the legal limit, lead at 3.6 times the limit, and cadmium at 3.4 times. A 2025 Toy Association study found 89% of toys from Shein and Temu had at least one safety failure, and 65% carried misleading or incorrect safety information at the point of sale.

The denominator matters more than the numerator. CPSC’s NEISS surveillance system estimated 15.1 million consumer-product-related emergency department visits in 2024, but the overwhelming majority involve stairs, floors, beds, and other household fixtures where injury results from use rather than defect. The PIRG tally of 869 injuries linked to products recalled in 2024 captures only the fraction that entered the formal recall process — products that were identified, investigated, and recalled, whose victims then reported through official channels. The true count of injuries from manufacturing defects is unknowable from existing data, but it is a small fraction of total product-related ER visits and a larger number than the recall-linked count suggests. A China-based company was the manufacturer, exporter, or responsible party for 42 of the 63 CPSC warnings issued in 2024, and the report ties the broader surge to overseas e-commerce.

The hoverboard precedent is instructive. In 2016, CPSC recalled more than 500,000 hoverboards after 99 reports of battery packs exploding or catching fire and at least 18 reported injuries — burns to the neck, legs, or arms — from lithium-ion battery failures in cheaply manufactured Chinese imports. The episode demonstrated that import volume can outpace enforcement, that the consequences concentrate in a small number of severe incidents rather than widespread low-grade harm, and that CPSC eventually catches up but only after a wave of injuries forces the issue. The current e-commerce boom, with its billion-package de minimis pipeline, is the same dynamic at larger scale and with a wider product range.

The lifetime odds of being harmed by an unsafe imported consumer product are about ~1 in 565 (US adult). Recalled products accounted for roughly 882 reported injuries in 2025, a small slice of the ~15.1 million product-related ER visits in 2024.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

4/8 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] US PIRG Education Fund — Safe At Home in 2025? Verified
    Safe At Home in 2025?
    Statistic
    869 injuries and 15 deaths from products recalled in 2024 (the most injuries in eight years); 305 recall announcements plus 63 CPSC warnings (up from 38 in 2023); a China-based company was the responsible party for 42 of the 63 warnings
    Excerpt
    “"A total of 869 injuries and 15 deaths were connected to products recalled during the year. ... Of the 63 warnings in 2024, a company in China was the manufacturer, exporter or responsible party for 42 of the products." ”
    Source data from
    2025-10-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    PIRG's annual "Safe At Home" report aggregates CPSC recall data for the calendar year (the 2025 edition covers 2024 recalls). The 869 injuries figure covers only injuries reported through the formal recall process, which drastically undercounts total defect-related injuries: most consumers who are harmed by a product do not file a SaferProducts.gov report, and many defective products are never recalled. The report attributes the 2024 surge substantially to China ("In a word, China," per CPSC's acting chair): a China-based company was the manufacturer, exporter, or responsible party for 42 of the 63 CPSC warnings issued in 2024. Used here as the most recent aggregate of recall-linked injury data.
    Independence
    PIRG independently aggregates CPSC public recall data; their analysis methodology is separate from CPSC's own annual reports but relies on the same underlying recall and incident data.
  2. [2] US Consumer Product Safety Commission — National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS)
    National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS)
    Statistic
    15.1 million consumer product-related ER visits estimated in 2024 via probability sample of ~100 US hospitals
    Excerpt
    “"NEISS injury data are gathered from the emergency departments of approximately 100 hospitals selected as a probability sample of all 5,000+ U.S. hospitals with emergency departments." ”
    Source data from
    2025-03-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    NEISS is the primary federal system for estimating consumer product-related injuries treated in US emergency departments. The 15.1 million figure for 2024 covers all consumer product categories, with "home structures and construction" (stairs, floors) accounting for ~4.5 million — injuries unrelated to product defects. NEISS does not code for country of origin or manufacturing defect vs user error, making it impossible to directly extract "injuries from unsafe imported products" from the database. The total is used here as a ceiling from which the defect-attributable fraction is estimated downward.
    Independence
    NEISS is the authoritative federal injury surveillance system; PIRG's recall-linked injury counts draw from a different data stream (recall reports) and are not a subset of NEISS estimates.
  3. [3] CBC Marketplace — Experts warn of high levels of chemicals in clothes by some fast-fashion retailers
    Experts warn of high levels of chemicals in clothes by some fast-fashion retailers
    Statistic
    A Shein toddler jacket contained nearly 20x Health Canada's safe limit for lead; a Shein purse exceeded the lead threshold by 5x
    Excerpt
    “"A jacket for toddlers purchased from Shein contained almost 20 times the amount of lead that Health Canada says is safe for children." ”
    Source data from
    2021-10-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    CBC Marketplace tested 38 items from several fast-fashion retailers in 2021. Nearly one in five items had elevated levels of lead, PFAS, or phthalates. The Shein toddler jacket finding (20x Health Canada's lead limit) triggered a Health Canada recall and was the most widely cited result. This is investigative journalism, not systematic surveillance, and the sample is small and non-random. It is included because the investigation drove significant public awareness and regulatory action, but it cannot be used to estimate population-level injury rates from fast-fashion chemical exposure.
    Independence
    CBC Marketplace commissioned independent laboratory testing through University of Toronto researchers; results are independent of CPSC, Seoul, and EU Safety Gate data.
  4. [4] Yahoo News (Reuters), reporting Seoul Metropolitan Government testing — South Korea: Children's Coat from Temu Contained 622 Times The Legal Limit for Toxins Verified
    South Korea: Children's Coat from Temu Contained 622 Times The Legal Limit for Toxins
    Statistic
    A Temu children's jacket contained 622x the legal limit of phthalate plasticizers, 3.6x the lead limit, and 3.4x the cadmium limit; of 26 children's winter-clothing items tested, 7 contained toxins exceeding Korean safety standards
    Excerpt
    “"The government tested one Temu jacket that had 622 times the legal limit of phthalate plasticizers, 3.6 times the legal limit of lead and 3.4 times the legal limit of cadmium. Of those 26 pieces, authorities found seven contained higher amounts of toxins like lead, cadmium and phthalate plasticizers." ”
    Source data from
    2024-11-28
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    The Seoul Metropolitan Government, as part of regular procedure, tested 26 items of children's winter clothing from Temu, AliExpress, and Shein; 7 of the 26 contained toxins (lead, cadmium, phthalates) exceeding Korean safety standards. The 622x phthalate exceedance on a single Temu jacket is the most extreme finding in any government testing of these platforms. Korean safety standards for children's products are broadly comparable to EU and US limits. However, product testing identifies hazard (chemical presence above thresholds), not risk (probability of illness at actual exposure duration and dose). A child wearing a coat with elevated phthalates is not the same as a child ingesting phthalates at toxic doses — dermal absorption rates for phthalates from textiles are generally low, though not negligible for infants who mouth fabric.
    Independence
    Seoul Metropolitan Government testing is independent of CBC Marketplace, CPSC, and EU Safety Gate data; uses Korean safety standards.
  5. [5] Information Technology and Innovation Foundation (ITIF) — China's State-Backed E-Commerce Platforms Threaten American Consumers and U.S. Technology Leadership
    China's State-Backed E-Commerce Platforms Threaten American Consumers and U.S. Technology Leadership
    Statistic
    The Section 321 de minimis exemption lets shipments valued at $800 or less bypass customs duties, making it easier for Chinese e-commerce platforms to flood the US market with low-cost goods
    Excerpt
    “"Section 321 of the Tariff Act of 1930 allows importers to bypass customs duties on packages valued at $800 or less, making it easier for Chinese e-commerce platforms to flood the U.S. market with low-cost goods without contributing to the federal revenue through duties." ”
    Source data from
    2025-04-02
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    ITIF's policy analysis documents the structural enforcement gap created by the Section 321 de minimis threshold ($800 per shipment), which lets Chinese e-commerce platforms ship low-cost goods into the US while bypassing customs duties and routine inspection. (The widely cited de minimis package volume — roughly 140 million shipments in 2013 rising to over 1 billion by 2023 — comes from CBP and Congressional Research Service data, not from this ITIF report; see the prose body.) The practical consequence is that the recall-based injury data (PIRG's 869 figure) almost certainly undercounts injuries from products that were never subject to border inspection, never recalled, and whose incidents were never reported. The enforcement gap is real but its size is not quantified — it is a known unknown in the injury estimate.
    Independence
    ITIF is an independent technology policy think tank; their analysis draws on CPSC and CBP data but provides independent policy recommendations.
  6. [6] The Toy Association (via PR Newswire) — New Study Highlights the Importance of Shopping from Trusted Toy Brands & Retailers this Cyber Monday
    New Study Highlights the Importance of Shopping from Trusted Toy Brands & Retailers this Cyber Monday
    Statistic
    In CPSC-accredited-lab testing of toys purchased from Temu and Shein, 89% had at least one safety failure and 65% carried misleading or incorrect safety information at the point of sale
    Excerpt
    “"89% of the toys purchased specifically from Temu and Shein had at least one safety failure ... 65% of the Temu and Shein toys provided misleading or incorrect safety information at the point of sale." ”
    Source data from
    2025-12-01
    Accessed
    2026-07-01 · archived copy
    Calculation
    The Toy Association commissioned CPSC-accredited third-party lab testing of toys bought from Temu and Shein for compliance with US federal toy-safety standards (small parts, phthalates, flammability). 89% had at least one safety failure (failed mandatory testing and/or labeling, age-grading, or warnings). Used as illustrative evidence of elevated defect rates on budget cross-border e-commerce platforms; it is a targeted sample of two platforms, not a population injury rate. The earlier body claim of "over 70% failing at least one laboratory safety test" could not be verbatim- confirmed in the press release and was replaced with the verbatim 89% / 65% figures.
    Independence
    The Toy Association is a US toy-industry trade group; its testing was performed by an independent CPSC-accredited lab. Directionally consistent with, but methodologically separate from, the CPSC recall data and Seoul government testing cited above.
  7. [7] Wiley Rein LLP — Biden Administration Announces Changes to De Minimis Trade Exemptions to Address Unfair and Unsafe Imports into the United States Verified
    Biden Administration Announces Changes to De Minimis Trade Exemptions to Address Unfair and Unsafe Imports into the United States
    Statistic
    De minimis shipments grew from 140 million in 2013 to over 1 billion in 2023 (nearly 4 million a day), per a September 2024 White House announcement
    Excerpt
    “"There has been a substantial increase in the number of imports entering the United States that use the de minimis exemption, increasing from 140 million shipments in 2013 to over 1 billion a year in 2023 (almost 4 million shipments a day)." ”
    Source data from
    2024-09-13
    Accessed
    2026-07-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Added to ground the shipment-volume figure in the body prose, which previously attributed the number directly to "Customs and Border Protection and Congressional Research Service data" without an actual CBP or CRS citation in this entry's source list. This law-firm client alert quotes the same growth figure (140 million to over 1 billion shipments/year) from a September 2024 White House announcement on de minimis reform; used here as the verifiable source for the volume-growth figure that anchors the enforcement-gap narrative.
    Independence
    Wiley Rein is a law firm summarizing a federal policy announcement; independent of ITIF's policy analysis and of the PIRG/CPSC recall data cited elsewhere in this entry.
  8. [8] CBS News — More Than 500,000 Hoverboards Recalled After Fires Verified
    More Than 500,000 Hoverboards Recalled After Fires
    Statistic
    CPSC recalled more than 500,000 hoverboards in 2016 after 99 reports of battery packs exploding or catching fire and at least 18 reported injuries (burns to neck, legs, or arms)
    Excerpt
    “"More than 500,000 hoverboards are being recalled after some of the motorized scooters overheated, burned riders and damaged property. ... There have been 99 reports to the Consumer Product Safety Commission of hoverboard battery packs that exploded or caught fire. ... At least 18 injuries were reported, such as burns to the neck, legs or arms." ”
    Source data from
    2016-07-06
    Accessed
    2026-07-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Added to ground the hoverboard historical-precedent paragraph in the body prose. The body previously stated "at least 99 injuries," conflating the 99 CPSC incident reports (battery packs exploding or catching fire) with the actual injury count, which this source puts at "at least 18." The body also cited "60 fires across 20 states" and "$2 million in property damage," figures that could not be verbatim-confirmed from an accessible source within this review; those specific figures were removed and the prose corrected to match the verified 99-incident-report / 18-injury breakdown.
    Independence
    Contemporary press coverage of CPSC's 2016 recall announcement; independent of the Temu/Shein-era sources (PIRG, Seoul, Toy Association) cited elsewhere in this entry; used only as historical precedent context.

434 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Skipping care over ICE fear — 1 in 7.1 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Anxiety disorder — 1 in 3.2 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Job loss & depression — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Silent hypertension — 1 in 2.7 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.9 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 Car-crash injury — 1 in 2.6 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.3 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 9.8 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Iron gap (women) — 1 in 3.9 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Magnesium gap — 1 in 1.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Child head lice — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Currency collapse — 1 in 5.6 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Subprime auto-loan repossession — 1 in 5.0 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 BNPL missed payment — 1 in 2.4 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Prolonged grid blackout — 1 in 2.0 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.7 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Problem-tenant loss — 1 in 1.8 LASIK complications — 1 in 100 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Drug overdose — 1 in 56 Gas-stove asthma in a child — 1 in 50 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Wisdom-tooth surgery — 1 in 22 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 20 Parkinson's — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 PTSD — 1 in 15 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Soda and diabetes — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Parent death/disability — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 26 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 50 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Child crash injury — 1 in 27 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 E-scooter injury — 1 in 10 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 37 Knife-involved assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Keyless relay car theft — 1 in 13 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 B12 deficiency — 1 in 28 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 14 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Child swallows object (ER) — 1 in 91 Life-threatening birth (US) — 1 in 61 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 36 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Dying without heir — 1 in 100 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Losing SNAP under 2025 work rules — 1 in 18 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 NAION (Ozempic) — 1 in 909 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 GLP-1 anesthesia aspiration — 1 in 613 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Too much caffeine — 1 in 366 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Heat-triggered preterm birth — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Tick-borne encephalitis — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 109 HIV diagnosis — 1 in 105 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 709 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 159 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 357 Homicide — 1 in 339 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 278 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Infant fall — 1 in 500 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 103 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 909 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Student visa revocation — 1 in 263 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Lightning home fire — 1 in 461 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Child nicotine-pouch ingestion — 1 in 7,937 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Listeria from deli meat — 1 in 6,061 Serious E. coli from fresh produce — 1 in 4,831 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Fish bone injury — 1 in 1,429 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 4,545 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Pool drowning — 1 in 5,882 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 SIDS — 1 in 2,398 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Flu brain swelling in a child (IAE/ANE) — 1 in 100,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Locally-acquired dengue (continental US) — 1 in 66,667 Anesthesia death — 1 in 45,662 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Vibrio vulnificus wound infection — 1 in 32,051 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Post-crash car fire — 1 in 25,000 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,576 Car submersion — 1 in 16,667 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Runway near-miss — 1 in 13,699 Acid attack — 1 in 94,340 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Post-hurricane heat death — 1 in 20,000 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 29,155 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 13,889 Lead-tainted cinnamon pouch — 1 in 40,000 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant car-seat asphyxia — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Forward-facing toddler death — 1 in 26,738 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Death in ICE custody — 1 in 17,065 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Crocodile attack — 1 in 337,838 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Whole-grape choking — 1 in 625,000 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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