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Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds of a phone crashing an airplane?

Lifetime probability

Effectively zero (no confirmed crash from PEDs)

0.0000001% lifetime chance

Most people overestimate this.

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Tech · reviewed 2026-04-19
Evidence quality 4.25/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
4/5
D2 Source authority
4/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
4/5
D6 Prose
5/5
D7 Perception honesty
4/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.25/5
Direct evidence
Source Government statistic · Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
lifetime, US adult each band = 10× rarer → See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
A phone silhouette and an airplane silhouette side by side with empty space between them, rendered in muted blue and grey tones, flat vector illustration.

Perceived

For decades, flight attendants instructed passengers to turn off all electronic devices during takeoff and landing, and the cabin announcement became one of aviation's most familiar rituals. The underlying fear — that a phone's radio signal could interfere with cockpit instruments and cause a crash — was never supported by a documented incident, but the regulatory posture implied a real danger. The FAA's 2013 decision to allow devices in airplane mode throughout all phases of flight effectively conceded the point, yet surveys show that many passengers still believe phones pose a meaningful crash risk. The FCC's separate ban on in-flight cellular calls (which remains in effect) is about protecting ground-based cell networks from airborne interference, not about aircraft safety, but this distinction is lost on most travelers.

Rough estimate: A substantial minority of travelers believe phones could interfere with avionics enough to cause a crash

Source: editorial intuition, not polled

Actual

0 confirmed crashes attributable to passenger electronic devices

Global commercial aviation, all years

Show derivation

No aviation accident has ever been causally attributed to passenger electronic device interference with avionics. The FAA Advisory Circular AC 91.21-1D and the 2013 PED Aviation Rulemaking Committee both concluded that modern avionics are sufficiently shielded. Globally, ~40 million commercial flights per year carry passengers using electronic devices (many with phones inadvertently left on). Over 25+ years of widespread cell phone use, this represents hundreds of millions of flight-segments with PEDs present and zero confirmed interference-caused accidents. The 1e-9 value is a structural floor to satisfy the schema; the true probability may be literally zero.

Caveats: The 1-in-1-billion native rate is a structural placeholder. The true rate of PED…

The 1-in-1-billion native rate is a structural placeholder. The true rate of PED-caused aviation accidents is zero in the historical record. The entry addresses crash risk specifically — low-level electromagnetic interference (EMI) events, such as brief static on cockpit audio, have been anecdotally reported by pilots but have never resulted in loss of aircraft control or a safety incident. The FCC ban on in-flight cellular calls (47 CFR 22.925) remains in effect as of 2026, but this regulation protects ground-based cell networks from airborne interference, not aircraft from phones. The FAA relaxation applies to devices in airplane mode; transmitting cellular calls from altitude remains prohibited for network-management reasons.

Related risks

Other risks on similar themes — for exploring related fears.

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Phone at gas pump

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Phone/laptop battery fire

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Compare to:

No aviation accident has ever been causally attributed to interference from a passenger’s cell phone or electronic device. The historical record covers billions of flight-segments over 25+ years of widespread cell phone ownership, during which phones were routinely left on inadvertently — RF monitoring aboard 37 US flights in 2003 detected unauthorized in-flight calls at a rate of one to four per flight, plus signals consistent with at least one passenger leaving a phone on during most flights. In 2013, the FAA formally relaxed PED restrictions after a dedicated Aviation Rulemaking Committee concluded that modern commercial aircraft can tolerate RF emissions from consumer electronics. The engineering basis is RTCA/DO-160, the electromagnetic compatibility standard to which all commercial avionics are certified, which tests equipment against RF field strengths well above anything a cabin full of phones produces.

The confusion between two separate regulations has sustained the myth. The FCC’s ban on airborne cellular calls (47 CFR 22.925, dating to 1991) remains in effect, but its purpose is protecting ground-based cell tower networks from interference caused by a phone connecting to multiple towers simultaneously at altitude — a network-management concern, not a flight- safety concern. The FAA’s pre-2013 PED restrictions were precautionary, adopted in the 1960s when avionics were less shielded and portable electronics were rare enough that the theoretical interference pathway could not be empirically ruled out. By 2013, the combination of improved avionics shielding (DO-160G compliance), massive natural experimentation (billions of flights with PEDs present), and formal testing by airlines removed the rationale for maintaining the restriction during takeoff and landing.

Mid-2000s research by Carnegie Mellon and others did detect low-level RF emissions from passenger devices during flights, and pilots have anecdotally reported brief audio-frequency interference on cockpit headsets when phones are in close proximity. Neither observation constitutes a safety hazard — the detected emissions were orders of magnitude below the threshold that would affect flight-critical avionics. The distinction between “detectable electromagnetic emission” and “interference sufficient to degrade a safety-critical system” is large, and the engineering margins in DO-160 exist precisely to ensure that the former never becomes the latter.

0 confirmed crashes attributable to passenger electronic devices. Despite decades of phones left on in flight, no crash has ever been traced to one; the airplane-mode ritual outlives the evidence behind it.

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

1/5 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) — Advisory Circular 91.21-1D: Use of Portable Electronic Devices Aboard Aircraft
    Advisory Circular 91.21-1D: Use of Portable Electronic Devices Aboard Aircraft
    Statistic
    FAA determined that airlines may allow portable electronic devices during all phases of flight, provided testing demonstrates the aircraft can tolerate potential interference
    Excerpt
    “"This AC provides guidance for use of portable electronic devices (PEDs) aboard aircraft. Operators may determine that certain PEDs may be used during all phases of flight, provided testing and analysis demonstrates the aircraft can tolerate the radio frequency emissions." ”
    Source data from
    2013-10-28
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    The FAA's 2013 advisory circular is the regulatory instrument that relaxed PED restrictions. It followed the PED Aviation Rulemaking Committee's finding that modern commercial aircraft meet RTCA/DO-160 electromagnetic compatibility standards and can tolerate RF emissions from consumer electronics. The AC does not claim that interference is physically impossible — it states that the probability of harmful interference from PEDs in airplane mode is acceptably low given modern avionics shielding. Airlines were required to verify their specific fleet's tolerance through testing before expanding PED permissions.
  2. [2] Wikipedia (citing FAA, FCC, EASA, and RTCA sources) — Mobile phones on aircraft
    Mobile phones on aircraft
    Statistic
    No aircraft accident has been attributed to interference from passenger mobile phones; the FCC ban on in-flight calls relates to ground network interference, not aviation safety
    Excerpt
    “"No one has officially or definitively linked cell phone usage to an airline accident. Researchers in the mid-2000s concluded that cell phones did have the potential to interfere with critical electronics in aircraft, though they couldn't find any instances in which it had caused an accident." ”
    Source data from
    2024-06-15
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Wikipedia's article synthesizes the regulatory history: the original FCC ban (47 CFR 22.925, dating to 1991) prohibits airborne cellular transmission to protect ground networks, not aircraft. The FAA's separate PED policy evolved from a blanket ban to the 2013 relaxation. The article notes that RTCA Special Committee 202 tested PED emissions and concluded that the theoretical interference pathway exists but at power levels well below those that would affect DO-160-compliant avionics. Used as a contextual source; the FAA AC is the authoritative primary.
    Independence
    Wikipedia synthesizes FAA, FCC, and RTCA sources rather than presenting independent evidence. Included for the concise summary of the regulatory timeline and the explicit statement about zero attributed accidents.
  3. [3] CNN — FAA allowing most electronic device use throughout flights
    FAA allowing most electronic device use throughout flights
    Statistic
    FAA announced in October 2013 that passengers may use most PEDs in airplane mode during all phases of flight, including takeoff and landing
    Excerpt
    “"The FAA said that airlines can allow passengers to use portable electronic devices such as tablets, laptop computers, e-readers and cell phones in airplane mode throughout the flight — with some circumstantial restrictions." ”
    Source data from
    2013-10-31
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    Contemporary news coverage of the FAA's 2013 policy change. The article notes that a panel the FAA established to study the issue concluded that most commercial airplanes can tolerate radio interference signals from PEDs. Included as a timestamped record of the policy change and public communication. The panel's conclusion — aircraft tolerance of PED emissions — is the key engineering finding that underpins the "effectively zero" risk assessment.
  4. [4] Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics (RTCA) — RTCA DO-160: Environmental Conditions and Test Procedures for Airborne Equipment
    RTCA DO-160: Environmental Conditions and Test Procedures for Airborne Equipment
    Statistic
    DO-160 is the standard for electromagnetic compatibility testing of all commercial avionics, including tolerance to external RF sources
    Excerpt
    “"DO-160 specifies a series of minimum standard environmental test conditions and applicable test procedures for airborne equipment. Section 20 covers RF susceptibility, and Section 21 covers emission of RF energy." ”
    Source data from
    2010-12-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-18 · archived copy
    Calculation
    RTCA/DO-160 (current revision G) is the engineering standard that ensures avionics can withstand electromagnetic interference. Section 20 (RF susceptibility) tests avionics against RF field strengths well above what consumer electronics produce. The standard has been updated progressively since 1975 to reflect evolving RF environments, including cellular, Wi-Fi, and Bluetooth frequencies. Modern aircraft certified to DO-160G are designed to operate correctly in the presence of consumer-electronics emissions. This standard is the technical basis for the FAA's 2013 policy change.
  5. [5] IEEE Spectrum — Unsafe At Any Airspeed? Verified
    Unsafe At Any Airspeed?
    Statistic
    RF monitoring aboard 37 US commercial flights (Sept-Nov 2003) detected unauthorized in-flight cell phone calls at a rate of one to four per flight, plus signals consistent with at least one passenger leaving a phone on during most flights
    Excerpt
    “"We measured the RF environment on 37 passenger flights in the eastern United States from September 2003 through November 2003... Results from our analysis imply that calls from on board scheduled commercial aircraft in the eastern United States occur at a rate of one to four per flight... We saw other signals that suggest that at least one passenger neglects to turn off his or her cellphone on most flights." ”
    Source data from
    2006-03-01
    Accessed
    2026-07-03 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    Bill Strauss (Carnegie Mellon University, engineering and public policy PhD thesis "Portable Electronic Devices Onboard Commercial Aircraft: Assessing the Risks," 2005) led the first documented study of in-flight RF emissions from passenger electronics, hiding a spectrum analyzer in carry-on luggage across 37 flights. The study found unauthorized calls occurring at a rate of one to four per flight and RF signatures consistent with at least one passenger leaving a phone powered on during most flights — the source for this entry's "phones routinely left on" and "mid-2000s RF detection research" claims. Strauss described the finding as suggestive rather than alarming, and no airline accident has ever been attributed to the emissions his team detected.

434 risks with measured probability
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Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Child head lice — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Currency collapse — 1 in 5.6 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Subprime auto-loan repossession — 1 in 5.0 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 BNPL missed payment — 1 in 2.4 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Prolonged grid blackout — 1 in 2.0 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.7 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Problem-tenant loss — 1 in 1.8 LASIK complications — 1 in 100 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Drug overdose — 1 in 56 Gas-stove asthma in a child — 1 in 50 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Wisdom-tooth surgery — 1 in 22 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 20 Parkinson's — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 PTSD — 1 in 15 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 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career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Losing SNAP under 2025 work rules — 1 in 18 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 NAION (Ozempic) — 1 in 909 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 GLP-1 anesthesia aspiration — 1 in 613 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Too much caffeine — 1 in 366 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Heat-triggered preterm birth — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 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Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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