Evidence quality 4.63/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 4/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 5/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
- Your factors
≈ As likely as
Perceived
Immigration enforcement is among the most politically charged topics in the US, and the fear of deportation dominates the lived experience of undocumented residents. Surveys of undocumented immigrants consistently find that a majority report significant anxiety about removal, with the Pew Research Center noting that roughly two-thirds of unauthorized immigrants who have lived in the US for a decade or more say they worry "a lot" or "some" about deportation. Media coverage of ICE raids amplifies the perception that enforcement is pervasive, even though the annual removal rate relative to the total undocumented population has historically been low in percentage terms.
Rough estimate: ~1 in 3 to 1 in 5 over a lifetime, intuitively
Source: editorial intuition, not polled
Actual
~1 in 50 per year (central estimate, ~250,000 removals / ~13 million undocumented)
Undocumented immigrants residing in the US (~11-14 million)
Show derivation
ICE ERO reports 142,580 formal ERO removals in FY2023. DHS OHSS repatriation tables report total "Removals" (all DHS components) of 177,540 in FY2023 and 329,990 in FY2024. Across recent years these totals have ranged from roughly 85,000 (FY2021) to over 400,000 (FY2014 peak). The undocumented population stood at roughly 11 million (DHS 2022 estimate) to 14 million (Pew 2023 revised estimate). Using a central annual removal rate of ~250,000 — sitting between the FY2023 and FY2024 DHS-reported removal totals — against a midpoint population of ~13 million gives an annual per-person hazard of ~1.9%, or roughly 1 in 50. Compounded over a notional 40-year adult residency horizon: 1 - (1 - 0.019)^40 ≈ 0.55, or ~55%. This is a crude population average; individual risk varies by orders of magnitude depending on criminal history, geographic location, and the political administration in power.
Caveats: This entry attempts to average across administrations, criminal history profiles…
This entry attempts to average across administrations, criminal history profiles, geographic locations, and duration of residence — each of which can shift individual risk by an order of magnitude or more. The "40-year residency horizon" is a modeling convenience; many undocumented immigrants do not remain for four decades, and many who do have effectively zero removal risk because interior enforcement has historically concentrated on individuals with criminal records. The population denominator is itself uncertain by ±3 million. Under maximalist enforcement policies, the annual removal rate could approach 3-4% of the undocumented population; under minimalist interior enforcement, it drops below 1%. The uncertainty band reflects this political volatility more than statistical noise. A separate question is destination given removal: the Migration Policy Institute estimates about 15,000 third-country deportations (13,000 of them to Mexico) between January 20 and December 31, 2025, against its estimate of roughly 396,000 ICE deportations in that first year — so removal to a third country runs on the order of 4% of ICE deportations, and removal to a country with no ties (the El Salvador CECOT, South Sudan, or Eswatini cases, ~2,000 by inference) on the order of 0.5%. MPI characterises these agreements as "more about fear than numbers." This conditional destination share does not change the headline removal probability, which is silent on where one is sent.
Related risks
Other risks on similar themes — for exploring related fears.
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Pick challenger
ICE removed roughly 250,000 undocumented immigrants per year in recent fiscal years, against an estimated population of 11-14 million. That gives an annual per-person removal probability of about 1 in 50, which compounded over a notional 40-year residency yields a lifetime figure around 55% — higher than most entries on this site, and roughly twice the lifetime odds of being a victim of violent crime. The number is less a single truth than a political variable: under Obama-era peak enforcement, annual removals exceeded 400,000; under the lowest Biden-era years, they fell below 150,000.
The gap between the population average and individual experience is vast. Interior enforcement has historically concentrated on individuals with criminal records, meaning a long-term resident with no convictions living in a non-sanctuary city faces a fraction of the headline risk, while a recent border crosser or someone with a prior removal order faces multiples of it. The political administration in power functions as the single largest “personal factor multiplier” — a variable that has no analogue in most public-health risk calculations.
Where these numbers fall apart: the denominator is uncertain by roughly three million people. The 40-year horizon assumes stable residency, but many undocumented immigrants leave voluntarily, obtain legal status, or cycle in and out. The annual removal figure conflates interior arrests (what most people fear) with border removals (which inflate the numerator without reflecting the experience of established residents). And the compounding math treats each year as independent, ignoring that surviving one year without removal may itself correlate with lower future risk — a healthy-survivor effect that the crude model cannot capture.
Related tidbits
Roughly 55% over a notional 40-year residency horizon, blending ~250,000 annual removals against ~13 million undocumented residents. The figure is less a fixed truth than a political variable: annual removals have swung from under 150,000 to over 400,000 by administration.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
1/4 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source
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[1] U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement — ICE Releases Fiscal Year 2023 Annual Report Verified
ICE Releases Fiscal Year 2023 Annual ReportSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
142,580 formal removals in FY2023; over 1 million total removals and expulsions including Title 42- Excerpt
“"ERO conducted 142,580 removals and 62,545 Title 42 expulsions to more than 170 countries worldwide in Fiscal Year 2023." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-03-01
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- ICE ERO's FY2023 formal removals (142,580) represent the floor of annual deportation activity. Adding Title 42 expulsions and CBP removals raises the total substantially. For the native figure, I use a central estimate of ~250,000 annual removals (blending FY2023 and FY2024 data, excluding Title 42 expulsions which ended May 2023) against a midpoint undocumented population of ~13 million. Annual hazard: 250,000 / 13,000,000 ≈ 0.019. Over 40 years: 1 - (1 - 0.019)^40 ≈ 0.55.
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[2] Pew Research Center — U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Reached a Record 14 Million in 2023
U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Reached a Record 14 Million in 2023- Statistic
Estimated 14 million unauthorized immigrants in the US as of mid-2023, up from 10.5 million in 2021- Excerpt
“"Between 2021 and 2023, the number of unauthorized immigrants living in the United States grew from an estimated 10.5 million to 14 million." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-08-21
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Pew's revised estimate of 14 million (mid-2023) is the highest credible estimate of the denominator. DHS's own estimate for January 2022 was 10.99 million. The midpoint of ~13 million is used for the native rate calculation. A larger denominator reduces the per-person annual hazard; a smaller one increases it — hence the wide uncertainty band.
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[3] DHS Office of Homeland Security Statistics — Immigration Enforcement and Legal Processes Monthly Tables
Immigration Enforcement and Legal Processes Monthly Tables- Statistic
Repatriations by fiscal year — Removals: FY2023 177,540; FY2024 329,990; FY2025 (partial, through Nov 2024) 61,630. Total repatriations (removals + returns + Title 42 expulsions): FY2023 1,199,910; FY2024 777,580- Excerpt
“"Yearly Repatriations by Fiscal Year — Removals: 2023 177,540; 2024 329,990; 2025 (so far) 61,630. Total: 2023 1,199,910; 2024 777,580; 2025 (so far) 111,010. Data available through November 2024." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-01-16
- Accessed
- 2026-04-18 · archived copy
- Calculation
- The DHS OHSS monthly tables report "Removals" (administrative removals carrying penalties) separately from returns and expulsions. Removals rose from 177,540 in FY2023 to 329,990 in FY2024, then reset to 61,630 for the partial FY2025 window (data through November 2024). This near-doubling from FY2023 to FY2024, and the swing across recent years (FY2021 removals were 85,100), is what drives the wide uncertainty band (20%-85% lifetime). The native central estimate of ~250,000 removals/year sits between the FY2023 (177,540) and FY2024 (329,990) DHS-reported removal totals; under aggressive enforcement the annual hazard could roughly double.
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[4] Migration Policy Institute — U.S. Third-Country Deportation Agreements Are More About Fear than Numbers
U.S. Third-Country Deportation Agreements Are More About Fear than Numbers- Statistic
~15,000 third-country deportations (13,000 to Mexico) between Jan 20 and Dec 31, 2025, against MPI's estimate of ~396,000 ICE deportations in the first year- Excerpt
“"The Migration Policy Institute (MPI) estimates about 15,000 third-country deportations (13,000 of them to Mexico) occurred between January 20, 2025, and December 31, 2025—a tiny share of the 1 million annual deportations the administration has said it intends to achieve. ... MPI estimates that U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) conducted 396,000 deportations in the administration's first year back." ”
- Source data from
- 2026-03-01
- Accessed
- 2026-06-14 · archived copy
- Calculation
- Destination-conditional context, not a change to the headline hazard. Of MPI's ~15,000 third-country deportations, ~13,000 went to Mexico (a contiguous hybrid-agreement destination), leaving ~2,000 (by inference, 15,000 − 13,000) sent to countries where the deportee has no ties (El Salvador, South Sudan, Eswatini). Against MPI's ~396,000 first-year ICE deportations: third-country share ≈ 15,000/396,000 ≈ 4%; no-ties share ≈ 2,000/396,000 ≈ 0.5%. This conditions on having already been removed and so does not modify normalized.lifetime_us_adult.