Evidence quality 4.13/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 4/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 4/5
- D5 Scope
- 3/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 4/5
● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal
- Your factors
≈ As likely as
Perceived
The driver here is the fear itself, so the relevant perception is how worried immigrants are that the health system will hand them to immigration enforcement. In the KFF/NYT 2025 survey, about half of immigrant adults (51%), and roughly eight in ten of those likely undocumented (78%), said they were somewhat or very concerned that health officials would share their information with immigration enforcement. The worry runs well ahead of the reported behavior: far more immigrants say they are concerned than say they have actually avoided care.
Rough estimate: ~51% of immigrant adults (78% of likely undocumented) concerned health officials share data with ICE
Actual
About 14 in 100 immigrant adults
Nationally representative US immigrant adults (KFF/NYT survey, Aug–Oct 2025), self-or-family report
Show derivation
This is NOT a lifetime probability. It is a self-reported behavioral prevalence measured over a single ~9-month window (immigration concerns 'since January 2025', captured by a survey fielded Aug 28–Oct 20, 2025) and contingent on the post-rescission enforcement regime that began Jan 20, 2025. The figure is the share of immigrant adults who said they OR a family member had avoided seeking medical care for immigration-related reasons in that period. It is placed on the lifetime axis (scope: subgroup_lifetime; subgroup = US immigrant adults) purely for comparability — it is not annualized, not projected to a lifetime, and would change with enforcement policy. native 14/100 = 0.14. log10(0.14) = -0.854. Uncertainty band 0.11–0.17 is the full-sample sampling margin of error of ±3 percentage points around 14% (KFF methodology); it reflects sampling error only, not the much larger regime-dependent and temporal variability.
Caveats: The headline 14% is not a lifetime risk: it is a self-reported, fear-driven beha…
The headline 14% is not a lifetime risk: it is a self-reported, fear-driven behavioral prevalence over a roughly nine-month window (immigration concerns since January 2025, captured by a survey fielded August–October 2025) and is contingent on the post-rescission enforcement regime that began January 20, 2025. It is placed on the lifetime comparison axis only via scope:subgroup_lifetime, which is this entry's weakest dimension (D5). The number is self-or-family report, so it counts households where any member avoided care, not only the respondent. The uncertainty band (0.11–0.17) is the survey's ±3pp full-sample sampling error and does not capture the larger temporal and policy-dependent variability. The likely-undocumented multiplier rests on a small subgroup (unweighted N=151, MOE ±10pp). 8D self-score average is 4.0, all dimensions ≥3, so the entry clears threshold; D5 (scope) is a defensible 3 given the period-to-lifetime mapping.
Related risks
Other risks on similar themes — for exploring related fears.
Infant sugar/salt and adult disease
How much does added sugar and salt in the first two years of life raise a child's risk of developing type 2 diabetes and hypertension in adulthood?
Infection from sharing food with child
What are the odds of getting a lasting infection from sharing food or drinks with your child?
Grandparent loss in childhood
What are the odds a 9-year-old loses at least one grandparent before turning 18?
Pacifier floor drop
What is the chance a baby gets a stomach illness from fomite/contact exposure (dropped pacifiers, mouthed toys, dirty floors) during infancy?
Parent death/disability
What are the odds of a parent dying or becoming disabled before their child turns 18?
Untreated depression
What fraction of US adults who develop major depression or an anxiety disorder receive no mental health treatment for at least a year?
Pick challenger
In the KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants, 14% of immigrant adults said they or a family member had avoided seeking medical care since January 2025 because of immigration-related concerns. That figure is not a lifetime probability. It is a self-reported behavioral prevalence over a single nine-month window, measured against one specific enforcement regime that began on January 20, 2025, when the Department of Homeland Security rescinded the guidelines that had kept immigration enforcement out of hospitals, schools and churches. Among immigrants the survey classified as likely undocumented, the share rose to 48%. For comparison on the same axis the number sits between the lifetime odds of personal bankruptcy (about 10%) and home burglary (about 39%), though those are lifetime hazards and this is a snapshot of a policy moment.
What makes this entry unusual is that the outcome being counted is itself a fear response. The avoidance is the behavior; the worry behind it is measured separately. About 51% of immigrant adults, and roughly 78% of those likely undocumented, said they were somewhat or very concerned that health officials would share their information with immigration enforcement. The worry runs well ahead of the reported action, which is the pattern the survey design lets you see: more people are anxious about the system than have yet skipped care because of it. Clinic-level reports line up with the survey. North Carolina Health News documented a roughly 50% drop in nutrition-program visits in Mecklenburg County and rising no-shows at sexual-health and tuberculosis clinics over 2025.
The number does not transfer cleanly. It describes immigrant adults specifically, not the general population, and it counts households where any member avoided care rather than the respondent alone. It is also tightly bound to time and policy: the question asked about behavior since a specific date, under a specific enforcement posture, and a different posture would likely produce a different figure. The likely-undocumented breakdown rests on a small subgroup (151 unweighted respondents, a sampling margin of about ten percentage points), so the 48% should be read as directional rather than precise. The reported uncertainty band of 11% to 17% reflects only the survey’s sampling error around the headline figure, not the larger swings that a changing enforcement environment would introduce.
Related tidbits
About 14 in 100 immigrant adults say they or a family member avoided needed medical care over enforcement fear since early 2025. The worry is far wider than the behavior: roughly 51% report being concerned, but far fewer actually skipped care.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
1/3 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source
-
[1] KFF (Kaiser Family Foundation) — KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration Enforcement
KFF/New York Times 2025 Survey of Immigrants: Worries and Experiences Amid Increased Immigration EnforcementSee all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
14% of immigrant adults overall and 48% of likely undocumented immigrants report they or a family member avoided seeking medical care since Jan 2025 due to immigration concerns; 51% (78% of likely undocumented) concerned health officials share data with ICE. N=1,805, MOE ±3pp full sample, ±10pp likely-undocumented (unweighted N=151).- Excerpt
“Nearly half (48%) of likely undocumented immigrants and 14% of immigrant adults overall say they or a family member have avoided seeking medical care since January 2025 due to immigration-related concerns.”
- Source data from
- 2025-11-13
- Accessed
- 2026-06-13
- Calculation
- Headline native = 14 per 100 immigrant adults (full sample). normalized.lifetime_us_adult = 0.14, log10 = -0.854. Uncertainty 0.11–0.17 = 14% ± 3pp full-sample MOE (per KFF methodology: 'The margin of sampling error including the design effect for the full sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points'). Multiplier 48/14 = 3.43 for likely-undocumented subgroup (subgroup MOE ±10pp, unweighted N=151). Perceived = 51% overall / 78% undocumented concerned about data sharing. Survey fielded Aug 28–Oct 20, 2025.
- Independence
- KFF publishes this survey across multiple report pages (worries/enforcement page, health-experiences page, topline PDF); these are ONE survey from ONE publisher (KFF/NYT), not independent corroboration. Counts as a single authoritative source.
-
[2] U.S. Department of Homeland Security — Statement from a DHS Spokesperson on Directives Expanding Law Enforcement and Ending the Abuse of Humanitarian Parole
Statement from a DHS Spokesperson on Directives Expanding Law Enforcement and Ending the Abuse of Humanitarian Parole- Statistic
On Jan 20, 2025, Acting DHS Secretary Benjamine Huffman rescinded the 2021 guidelines restricting ICE/CBP enforcement in 'sensitive'/protected areas (schools, hospitals, churches), the policy change that frames the survey window.- Excerpt
“The first directive rescinds the Biden Administration's guidelines for Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and Customs and Border Protection (CBP) enforcement actions that thwart law enforcement in or near so-called "sensitive" areas.”
- Source data from
- 2025-01-21
- Accessed
- 2026-06-13
- Calculation
- Establishes the policy regime ('since January 2025') the KFF survey measures against. No probability figure drawn from this source; it documents the enforcement-policy context that makes the avoidance prevalence policy-contingent.
- Independence
- Independent of KFF: this is the primary government action, not a commentary on the survey.
-
[3] North Carolina Health News — Providers: Patients skip care during NC immigration crackdown Verified
Providers: Patients skip care during NC immigration crackdown- Statistic
Mecklenburg County (NC) Health Department reported a ~50% drop in WIC nutrition visits and sharp rises in missed/cancelled appointments at adult sexual-health and TB clinics in 2025, corroborating clinic-level avoidance.- Excerpt
“50 percent drop in the number of women coming in for nutrition and breastfeeding support through the Women, Infants and Children program”
- Source data from
- 2025-11-20
- Accessed
- 2026-06-13
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- Provides clinic-level corroboration that survey-reported avoidance shows up as real no-shows/drops; not used for the headline figure (clinic counts are not population-denominated and not comparable to the survey prevalence).