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Perceived fear vs. actual probability

What are the odds of dying from type 2 diabetes or its complications?

Lifetime probability · global

1 in ~13

7.5% lifetime chance

Most people underestimate this.

Scopes vary — shown as typical adult lifetime odds. See methodology.

Health · reviewed 2026-06-14
Evidence quality 4.63/5

Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.

D1 Source grounding
5/5
D2 Source authority
5/5
D3 Arithmetic
4/5
D4 Uncertainty
4/5
D5 Scope
5/5
D6 Prose
4/5
D7 Perception honesty
5/5
D8 Caveat completeness
5/5
Average 4.63/5
Direct evidence
Source Government statistic · World Health Organization
lifetime, global adult each band = 10× rarer → zoomed to your factors See full scale →
certain 1 in 1K 1 in 1M 1 in 1B
1 in 2.7 1 in 22

● your factors — click this risk ▾ to reveal

  1. Your factors

≈ As likely as

A single thin descending line crossing a horizontal threshold on a muted sand background, flat vector illustration.

Perceived

Type 2 diabetes almost never appears on lists of things people fear. It doesn’t feature in the Chapman Survey of American Fears top tier, it isn’t the premise of any disaster movie, and most adults under 60 file it somewhere between “a lifestyle problem” and “manageable with pills”. The intuitive model is that diabetes is slow, chronic, and mostly a matter of inconvenience — a disease you live with, not one you die from. That collapses the single biggest accounting question in diabetes epidemiology (underlying vs contributing cause of death) into the wrong answer, and it underweights the role diabetes plays in driving the cardiovascular and kidney deaths that sit above it in the rankings.

Rough estimate: 31% of US adults say they are very or somewhat worried about personally experiencing diabetes

Source: Gallup (2021) — Cancer, Heart Disease Worries Eclipse COVID-19

Actual

~6.7 million diabetes-related deaths per year globally (adults 20-79)

global adults 20-79, diabetes-related deaths (IDF 2021)

Show derivation

Uses the IDF Diabetes Atlas 10th edition (2021) estimate of ~6.7 million diabetes-related deaths in adults aged 20-79 globally in 2021 as the headline figure. This is the broader “diabetes-attributable” count, which includes deaths where diabetes was the underlying cause and deaths where diabetes was the main driver of a cardiovascular or renal cause of death. The narrower WHO “underlying cause” count is much smaller — ~1.6 million direct diabetes deaths per year globally per the WHO Diabetes fact sheet (2024 update), plus ~530,000 diabetes-attributable kidney disease deaths and roughly 11% of all cardiovascular deaths. Type 2 diabetes accounts for ~96% of diabetes cases and ~95% of the global diabetes disease burden per the GBD 2021 diabetes collaborators, so the all-diabetes figure is effectively a type-2 figure. Across a global adult population of ~5.5 billion (age 18+), 6.7 million deaths/year is ~1.22 per 1,000 adults/year. Compounded naively over 60 adult years: 1 - (1 - 1.22e-3)^60 ≈ 0.070. Adjusted modestly upward to 0.075 (≈ 1 in 13) to reflect that diabetes mortality is concentrated in the second half of adult life where per-year hazards are several-fold higher than the average, and the naive compounding understates the lifetime figure. Scope is global-adult-lifetime rather than US-adult-lifetime because diabetes prevalence varies roughly four-fold across regions (Oceania ~12% vs Sub-Saharan Africa ~5.5% age-standardised) and the headline needs to reflect the global baseline, not a US-specific one.

Caveats: The single largest uncertainty on this page is the definition of “diabetes-attri…

The single largest uncertainty on this page is the definition of “diabetes-attributable death”. On the strict WHO underlying-cause definition, diabetes directly kills ~1.6 million people per year globally, which would put the lifetime figure closer to 1 in 50. On the broader IDF diabetes-related definition — which credits diabetes with the cardiovascular and kidney deaths it drives — the number is ~6.7 million per year and the lifetime figure is closer to 1 in 13. Likelier uses the broader figure as the headline because it is the one that matches what the word “diabetes kills” actually means in everyday language: a type 2 diabetic who dies of a heart attack at 65 did, in a meaningful sense, die of diabetes. The uncertainty band brackets both methodologies. Type 2 diabetes accounts for ~95% of global diabetes cases (GBD 2021), so the “diabetes” and “type 2 diabetes” figures are essentially interchangeable for the headline. The personal_factor_multipliers are order-of-magnitude relative risks from the epidemiological literature, not a calibrated personal risk calculator: for a formal personal estimate, clinical tools such as the AUSDRISK, FINDRISC, or QDiabetes calculators are the appropriate instrument. The semaglutide 2.4mg protective multiplier (0.80) is sourced from the SELECT trial, which enrolled overweight/obese adults with established cardiovascular disease but without diabetes; the multiplier reflects its ~20% cut in major adverse cardiovascular events (the dominant component of diabetes-attributable death here), not a measured reduction in diabetes-cause mortality, and should be read as a cardiovascular-protection signal rather than a precise diabetes-mortality adjustment.

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Compare to:

Type 2 diabetes is probably the single most underrated major killer on this site. The International Diabetes Federation’s 10th edition Atlas puts global diabetes-related deaths at roughly 6.7 million per year in adults aged 20-79, and the GBD 2021 diabetes collaborators in The Lancet report that type 2 accounts for 96% of all diabetes cases and 95% of diabetes DALYs worldwide — so the all-diabetes number is effectively a type-2 number. Spread across a global adult population and compounded over a normal adult lifespan, that works out to something close to 1 in 13 as a lifetime mortality figure for a generic adult alive today. For scale: that is comparable to heart disease, larger than stroke, and several thousand times the lifetime mortality from a plane crash. Diabetes almost never cracks the top tier of anyone’s fear list.

The interesting thing about diabetes on the Likelier catalogue is the accounting. The World Health Organization’s 2024 Diabetes fact sheet puts direct diabetes deaths at ~1.6 million per year, plus another ~530,000 diabetes-attributable kidney disease deaths, plus roughly 11% of all cardiovascular deaths — which is where the extra few million in the broader IDF figure come from. On the strict underlying-cause definition a type 2 diabetic who dies of a heart attack at 65 dies of heart disease; on the broader “diabetes-related” definition that same death is diabetes-attributable, and the two accounting conventions disagree by a factor of roughly three. The same problem shows up in the US data: CDC FastStats reports ~94,000 US deaths with diabetes as the underlying cause in 2024 (rank 7 among all causes), but diabetes is mentioned on roughly four times as many death certificates once you include contributing-cause entries. This page uses the broader figure, because that is the one that maps to what readers mean when they ask whether diabetes is going to kill them.

Where the number doesn’t apply: almost everywhere, because heterogeneity on this fear is enormous. Several Pacific Island nations — Marshall Islands, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Nauru — have adult diabetes prevalence above 25%, the highest rates anywhere on Earth, driven by a combination of genetic susceptibility and a rapid mid-century dietary transition from traditional foods to imported processed staples. At the other end of the spectrum, age-standardised prevalence in Sub-Saharan Africa is roughly half the global average, although competing mortality from infectious disease makes that number misleading as a trend indicator. Within any given country, the gap between a non-smoker with BMI 22 who meets physical activity guidelines and has no family history and an adult with BMI 35+, untreated prediabetes, and first-degree family history is larger than the gap between most pairs of fears on this site. The global 1-in-13 figure is a ceiling, not a forecast, for any particular reader.

Related tidbits

Type 2 diabetes and Alzheimer's are both leading causes of death, both strongly linked to lifestyle, and both progress slowly enough that urgency never kicks in. The threats that kill gradually don't trigger the fear response.

Read more → ⇄ compare

Claim ledger

Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.

4/5 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source

  1. [1] International Diabetes Federation (Sun et al., Diabetes Research and Clinical Practice) — IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045 Verified
    IDF Diabetes Atlas: Global, regional and country-level diabetes prevalence estimates for 2021 and projections for 2045
    Statistic
    Global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was 10.5% (536.6 million people), projected to rise to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045
    Excerpt
    “"The global diabetes prevalence in 20-79 year olds in 2021 was estimated to be 10.5% (536.6 million people), rising to 12.2% (783.2 million) in 2045. [...] Prevalence [in 2021] was estimated to be higher in urban (12.1%) than rural (8.3%) areas, and in high-income (11.1%) compared to low-income countries (5.5%). The greatest relative increase in the prevalence of diabetes between 2021 and 2045 is expected to occur in middle-income countries (21.1%)." ”
    Source data from
    2022-01-01
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    IDF’s 10th edition Atlas reports ~6.7 million diabetes-related deaths in adults 20-79 in 2021 as the broad “diabetes-attributable” figure (main report; the Sun et al. abstract itself covers prevalence not mortality). The 6.7M number is used as the numerator for the normalized rate: 6.7M / ~5.5B global adults ≈ 1.22 per 1,000 adults/year, compounded over 60 adult years → ~7%, adjusted to 7.5% for the age-concentration of diabetes mortality. IDF 536.6M ≈ WHO 830M (2022, age-standardised across all ages 18+) differ because IDF restricts to 20-79 and WHO includes the full adult population.
    Independence
    IDF Atlas estimates and GBD 2021 diabetes estimates share substantial upstream data (national surveys, registry data, verbal autopsy studies) but use different modelling pipelines and are published separately; treat as partially but not fully independent of the Lancet GBD source below.
  2. [2] World Health Organization — Diabetes — fact sheet Verified
    Diabetes — fact sheet
    Statistic
    830 million adults living with diabetes in 2022; 14% of adults aged 18+; 1.6 million direct diabetes deaths in 2021 plus 530,000 diabetes-attributable kidney disease deaths; ~11% of cardiovascular deaths caused by high blood glucose; >95% of cases are type 2
    Excerpt
    “"In 2022, 14% of adults aged 18 years and older were living with diabetes, an increase from 7% in 1990. [...] More than 95% of people with diabetes have type 2 diabetes. [...] In 2021, diabetes and kidney disease due to diabetes caused over 2 million deaths. In addition, around 11% of cardiovascular deaths were caused by high blood glucose. [...] More than half of people living with diabetes did not take medication for their diabetes in 2022. Diabetes treatment was lowest in low- and middle-income countries." ”
    Source data from
    2024-11-14
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    WHO’s narrower underlying-cause count (1.6M direct diabetes deaths + 0.53M diabetes-attributable kidney disease deaths = ~2.1M) plus ~11% of the ~19.8M annual global CVD deaths (≈ 2.2M) gives ~4.3M diabetes-attributable deaths on the WHO methodology, materially below IDF’s 6.7M. The gap is mostly in the CVD-attribution fraction: IDF uses a broader PAF approach that credits more diabetic CVD deaths to diabetes itself. The Likelier headline splits the difference and uses the IDF number; the uncertainty band (0.05-0.12) covers both methodologies. Used as the authoritative top-level institutional source and to anchor the “95% of cases are type 2” framing, which is why the page treats “diabetes” and “type 2 diabetes” as essentially interchangeable for the headline number.
    Independence
    WHO diabetes fact sheet draws on WHO Global Health Estimates, which in turn uses IHME GBD inputs; partially dependent on the Lancet GBD source but methodologically distinct in how it allocates CVD deaths to diabetes.
  3. [3] GBD 2021 Diabetes Collaborators (The Lancet) — Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021 Verified
    Global, regional, and national burden of diabetes from 1990 to 2021, with projections of prevalence to 2050: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021
    Statistic
    529 million people living with diabetes in 2021 (95% UI 500-564); type 2 diabetes accounts for 96.0% of cases and 95.4% of diabetes DALYs; global age-standardised prevalence 6.1%; highest regional rates in Oceania (12.3%) and North Africa/Middle East (9.3%); 1.31 billion projected by 2050
    Excerpt
    “"In 2021, there were 529 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 500-564) people living with diabetes worldwide. The global age-standardised total diabetes prevalence was 6·1% (5·8-6·5). [...] Type 2 diabetes [...] accounted for 96·0% (95·1-96·8) of diabetes cases and 95·4% (94·9-95·9) of diabetes DALYs worldwide. [...] The highest age-standardised rates were observed in north Africa and the Middle East (9·3% [8·7-9·9]) and, at the regional level, in Oceania (12·3% [11·5-13·0]). [...] 52·2% (25·5-71·8) of global type 2 diabetes DALYs were attributable to high BMI. [...] By 2050, more than 1·31 billion (1·22-1·39) people are projected to have diabetes." ”
    Source data from
    2023-07-15
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    GBD 2021 gives a total-diabetes count (529M) about 1.5% below IDF (536.6M in the slightly different 20-79 window), a close enough agreement to anchor the order of magnitude. The key figure Likelier uses from this source is the 96% type-2 share, which justifies treating the all-diabetes mortality number as effectively a type-2 number. The Oceania and North Africa/Middle East regional highs feed the regional_breakdown entries, and the 52% BMI attribution feeds the BMI-based personal_factor_multipliers. Used as the authoritative peer-reviewed cross-check on the IDF Atlas headline and as the source for regional variance and BMI attribution.
    Independence
    GBD 2021 uses the IHME Cause of Death Ensemble model pipeline, which is methodologically distinct from IDF’s Atlas modelling but draws on overlapping upstream vital registration data; partially dependent.
  4. [4] US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention / National Center for Health Statistics — Diabetes — FastStats
    Diabetes — FastStats
    Statistic
    94,445 US deaths with diabetes as underlying cause (2024); 27.8 deaths per 100,000; diabetes is the 7th-ranked cause of death in the US
    Excerpt
    “"Number of deaths: 94,445. Deaths per 100,000 population: 27.8. Cause of death rank: 7. [...] Source: National Vital Statistics System - Mortality Data (2024) via CDC WONDER." ”
    Source data from
    2026-02-20
    Accessed
    2026-04-11 · archived copy
    Calculation
    ~94,400 US underlying-cause deaths across ~260M US adults ≈ 0.36 per 1,000 adults/year. Compounded over 60 adult years: 1 - (1 - 3.6e-4)^60 ≈ 0.021, a US-only figure of ~2.1% on the strict underlying-cause definition. The corresponding broader figure — the one that matches the global IDF methodology — uses the National Diabetes Statistics Report finding that diabetes was mentioned as underlying or contributing cause on ~399,000 US death certificates in 2023 (~4.2x the underlying-cause count), implying a lifetime figure closer to 0.09 for US adults. That is what the US row in regional_breakdown reflects. Used as the US anchor and to justify the underlying-vs-contributing methodology discussion in the long-form body.
    Independence
    CDC FastStats draws from the NCHS NVSS death-certificate pipeline, which also feeds into WHO Global Health Estimates and IHME GBD upstream. Used here as the US-specific anchor rather than an independent verification of the global IDF/GBD figure.
  5. [5] Lincoff et al., New England Journal of Medicine — Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes (SELECT trial) Verified
    Semaglutide and Cardiovascular Outcomes in Obesity without Diabetes (SELECT trial)
    Statistic
    Semaglutide 2.4mg reduced major adverse cardiovascular events by ~20% (hazard ratio 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.90) vs placebo in 17,604 overweight/obese adults aged 45+ with established cardiovascular disease and without diabetes; MACE occurred in 6.5% vs 8.0%
    Excerpt
    “"A primary cardiovascular end-point event occurred in 569 of the 8803 patients (6.5%) in the semaglutide group and in 701 of the 8801 patients (8.0%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.72 to 0.90; P<0.001)." ”
    Source data from
    2023-12-14
    Accessed
    2026-06-14 · archived copy
    Verification
    Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
    Calculation
    SELECT did not estimate diabetes mortality; it is used here solely to source the semaglutide (GLP-1 receptor agonist) protective personal_factor_multiplier of 0.80. The hazard ratio of 0.80 for major adverse cardiovascular events maps directly to a multiplier of 0.80 against the cardiovascular component of diabetes-related death, which is the dominant component in this entry's broad IDF "diabetes-attributable" headline. The trial enrolled patients without diabetes, so the cardiovascular benefit is established beyond the diabetic population; in type 2 diabetes specifically the effect direction is consistent with earlier GLP-1 RA cardiovascular-outcome trials. No change is made to the headline lifetime figure on the basis of this source.
    Independence
    Industry-sponsored (Novo Nordisk) randomised controlled trial, independent of the IDF Atlas, WHO, GBD, and CDC mortality-surveillance sources above; used only as the basis for the GLP-1 RA protective multiplier, not as a cross-check on the headline.

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434 risks with measured probability
1 in 10 1 in 100 1 in 1K 1 in 10K 1 in 100K 1 in 1M 1 in 10M 1 in 100M 1 in 1B certain rarer → Cosmetic surgery abroad risk — 1 in 10 Infant sugar/salt and adult disease — 1 in 10 Endometriosis — 1 in 10 Hair transplant Turkey risk — 1 in 10 Knee replacement — 1 in 10 Chronic painkillers — 1 in 10 Complete tooth loss — 1 in 9.1 Alzheimer's — 1 in 8.3 Sleep deprivation — 1 in 8.3 Smokeless tobacco — 1 in 8.3 Cycling w/o helmet — 1 in 8.0 Bruxism tooth damage — 1 in 7.7 Skipping care over ICE fear — 1 in 7.1 Vision loss — 1 in 6.7 Hernia from lifting — 1 in 6.7 Hip fracture risk — 1 in 6.7 Regular drinking — 1 in 6.7 First heart attack — 1 in 5.9 Infertility — 1 in 5.7 5+ years paid LTC — 1 in 5.6 CTE (football) — 1 in 5.0 Major depression — 1 in 4.9 Hiking injury — 1 in 4.8 Infection from sharing food with child — 1 in 4.2 Lyme disease — 1 in 4.0 Loneliness & health — 1 in 3.8 Inheriting AUD risk — 1 in 3.5 Alcohol use disorder — 1 in 3.4 Anxiety disorder — 1 in 3.2 Menopause CV risk acceleration — 1 in 3.0 Silent diabetes — 1 in 3.0 Flying with cold — 1 in 2.9 Job loss & depression — 1 in 2.9 Tick illness (forest) — 1 in 2.9 Silent high cholesterol — 1 in 2.9 Grandparent loss in childhood — 1 in 2.8 Pacifier floor drop — 1 in 2.8 Silent hypertension — 1 in 2.7 Drug-resistant infection — 1 in 2.6 No marrow match — 1 in 2.4 Nursing home admission — 1 in 2.2 False-positive mammogram — 1 in 2.0 Regular smoking — 1 in 2.0 Travelers' diarrhea — 1 in 2.0 Adventure sports — 1 in 1.8 LTC need after 65 — 1 in 1.8 Widowhood probability — 1 in 1.7 Unprotected sex — 1 in 1.5 Chronic back pain — 1 in 1.3 Hand hygiene — 1 in 1.0 Cancer (any) — 1 in 7.1 E-scooter no helmet — 1 in 4.5 E-bike no helmet — 1 in 4.0 Mishandled luggage — 1 in 3.7 At-fault injury crash — 1 in 2.9 Deer collision — 1 in 2.7 Car-crash injury — 1 in 2.6 Flight cancellation — 1 in 1.8 Trip disruption: war or disaster — 1 in 1.7 Home burglary (global) — 1 in 9.1 Hitchhiking assault — 1 in 8.8 Mail check fraud — 1 in 7.7 Child sexual abuse — 1 in 6.8 Stalking — 1 in 6.2 Student sexual assault — 1 in 5.7 Domestic violence — 1 in 3.7 Night walk assault — 1 in 3.6 Bicycle theft — 1 in 2.9 Sexual assault — 1 in 2.3 Sexual harassment (lifetime) — 1 in 1.6 Water scarcity — 1 in 2.5 Carrington-class solar storm — 1 in 1.9 WAIS tipping point — 1 in 1.1 Indoor cat escape harm — 1 in 10 Off-leash dog bite — 1 in 9.8 Rabbit dies in 4 years — 1 in 3.3 Dog bite (non-fatal) — 1 in 1.8 Hamster dies before teenager — 1 in 1.0 Iron gap (women) — 1 in 3.9 Vitamin D gap — 1 in 2.9 Magnesium gap — 1 in 1.9 Undercooked food — 1 in 1.6 Raw meat cross-contamination — 1 in 1.4 Food left out — 1 in 1.2 AI voice scam — 1 in 2.9 Online scam loss — 1 in 2.5 Teen cyberbullying — 1 in 2.0 Kids & explicit content — 1 in 1.9 Data breach — 1 in 1.1 Miscarriage — 1 in 6.7 Teen suicide attempt — 1 in 5.6 Postpartum depression — 1 in 4.8 Painkiller before infant vaccination — 1 in 3.8 Excessive pregnancy weight — 1 in 2.6 Unvaxxed child & measles — 1 in 2.0 Child head lice — 1 in 2.0 Elder fraud loss — 1 in 10 Pension fund collapse — 1 in 10 Housing crash — 1 in 8.3 IRS audit — 1 in 6.7 Currency collapse — 1 in 5.6 Visa overstay deportation — 1 in 5.6 Subprime auto-loan repossession — 1 in 5.0 Long term disability working age — 1 in 4.0 Student loan default — 1 in 3.8 Whistleblower retaliation — 1 in 3.2 Forced job exit before retirement — 1 in 2.9 Retirement shortfall — 1 in 2.6 BNPL missed payment — 1 in 2.4 Divorce — 1 in 2.4 Burst pipe damage — 1 in 2.2 Workplace bullying — 1 in 2.1 Prolonged grid blackout — 1 in 2.0 Deportation (undocumented) — 1 in 1.8 Funeral cost shock — 1 in 1.7 Identity theft — 1 in 1.7 Credit card fraud — 1 in 1.5 School bullying — 1 in 1.5 Frontline soldier casualty — 1 in 1.3 Economic recession — 1 in 1.0 Stock market crash — 1 in 1.0 Hail roof damage — 1 in 3.0 Problem-tenant loss — 1 in 1.8 LASIK complications — 1 in 100 Dry toilet paper harm — 1 in 100 Secondhand smoke — 1 in 91 Gaming disorder (adults) — 1 in 83 High-heel ER visit — 1 in 79 Child throwing object — 1 in 67 Medication reaction — 1 in 58 Drug overdose — 1 in 56 Gas-stove asthma in a child — 1 in 50 Cat litter toxoplasmosis — 1 in 48 Mental health LTD claim — 1 in 45 Benzo dependence — 1 in 40 Tap water lead — 1 in 40 Medication misuse — 1 in 35 Traumatic brain injury — 1 in 33 Hospital infection — 1 in 31 Air pollution — 1 in 29 End-stage kidney disease — 1 in 29 Traveler's diarrhea (water) — 1 in 26 Skiing injury — 1 in 26 Bipolar disorder — 1 in 23 Wisdom-tooth surgery — 1 in 22 Dental tourism complication — 1 in 20 Elderly abandonment — 1 in 20 Parkinson's — 1 in 20 Pet parasites — 1 in 20 Undiagnosed ADHD — 1 in 20 Adult-onset food allergy — 1 in 19 Non-Alzheimer's dementia — 1 in 17 Cannabis use disorder — 1 in 16 Stroke — 1 in 15 PTSD — 1 in 15 Severe hearing loss — 1 in 14 Type 2 diabetes — 1 in 13 Appendicitis — 1 in 13 Indoor cooking smoke — 1 in 13 Untreated depression — 1 in 13 Soda and diabetes — 1 in 13 Heart disease — 1 in 12 Medical error death — 1 in 12 Compulsive sexual behavior — 1 in 12 Eating disorder — 1 in 11 Hip replacement — 1 in 11 Kidney stones — 1 in 11 Parent death/disability — 1 in 11 Sedentary lifestyle — 1 in 11 Salon infection — 1 in 11 Ovarian cancer — 1 in 91 Colorectal cancer — 1 in 77 Breast cancer — 1 in 59 Liver cancer — 1 in 59 Lung cancer — 1 in 56 Prostate cancer — 1 in 50 Melanoma (UV) — 1 in 29 Low-fiber CRC risk — 1 in 26 Red meat & CRC — 1 in 21 Charred meat & cancer — 1 in 20 Maintenance crash — 1 in 83 Driving on sedating meds — 1 in 77 Texting + driving — 1 in 56 Unbelted crash death — 1 in 53 Speeding 20% over limit — 1 in 50 Motorcycle no helmet — 1 in 45 Spaceflight (astronaut) — 1 in 42 Video watching + driving — 1 in 32 Child crash injury — 1 in 27 Drowsy driving — 1 in 26 Cruise ship norovirus — 1 in 24 E-scooter injury — 1 in 10 Pickpocketed while traveling — 1 in 38 Catalytic converter theft — 1 in 37 Knife-involved assault — 1 in 37 Vehicle theft — 1 in 34 Street robbery / mugging — 1 in 26 Wrongful conviction — 1 in 24 Drink spiking — 1 in 17 Keyless relay car theft — 1 in 13 Protest under autocracy — 1 in 12 AMOC collapse — 1 in 20 Sting anaphylaxis — 1 in 50 Cat collar injury — 1 in 25 Restaurant food poisoning — 1 in 58 B12 deficiency — 1 in 28 Vegetarian deficiency — 1 in 14 Intimate deepfake — 1 in 25 Social media problematic use — 1 in 13 Child swallows object (ER) — 1 in 91 Life-threatening birth (US) — 1 in 61 Childbirth death (SSA) — 1 in 55 Toddler stair fall — 1 in 37 Co-sleeping death — 1 in 36 Play swing & slide injury — 1 in 33 Autism diagnosis — 1 in 31 C-section complications — 1 in 29 Toy injury requiring ER (child) — 1 in 21 Preeclampsia — 1 in 20 Severe birth tearing — 1 in 17 Gestational diabetes — 1 in 13 Child fall head injury — 1 in 12 Dying without heir — 1 in 100 Sports betting financial ruin — 1 in 100 Fighter pilot death — 1 in 48 Commercial fishing career death — 1 in 45 Logging career death — 1 in 34 Medical bankruptcy — 1 in 25 Compulsive buying disorder — 1 in 20 Rental listing scam loss — 1 in 20 Losing SNAP under 2025 work rules — 1 in 18 Mortgage foreclosure — 1 in 14 Musculoskeletal LTD claim — 1 in 14 Day-trading losses — 1 in 13 Extremist govt catastrophe — 1 in 13 Hurricane home destruction — 1 in 17 NAION (Ozempic) — 1 in 909 Infant pool submersion — 1 in 800 MS — 1 in 769 Workplace fatality — 1 in 690 Typhoid fever — 1 in 654 GLP-1 anesthesia aspiration — 1 in 613 Unsafe imported products — 1 in 565 Brain aneurysm — 1 in 400 COVID-19 — 1 in 400 Fireworks injury — 1 in 385 Too much caffeine — 1 in 366 Sickle cell disease — 1 in 365 Counterfeit medicine — 1 in 361 Spinal cord injury — 1 in 313 Childhood cancer diagnosis — 1 in 285 Next pandemic death — 1 in 208 Dengue (travel) — 1 in 200 Heat-triggered preterm birth — 1 in 200 Skipping daily showers — 1 in 200 Not scrubbing feet — 1 in 200 Marrow donation risk — 1 in 167 Tick-borne encephalitis — 1 in 167 Schizophrenia — 1 in 143 Accidental fall — 1 in 135 Sudden death during exercise — 1 in 123 Suicide (US) — 1 in 121 Opioid addiction — 1 in 114 Tuberculosis (global) — 1 in 109 HIV diagnosis — 1 in 105 Radon cancer — 1 in 435 Testicular cancer — 1 in 250 Cervical cancer — 1 in 167 Pancreatic cancer — 1 in 125 Pedestrian death — 1 in 806 Motorcycle crash — 1 in 709 Boating drowning — 1 in 685 Driver kills pedestrian — 1 in 552 Phone-distracted walking injury — 1 in 400 EV battery fire — 1 in 333 Cyclist killed by car — 1 in 159 Petrol car fire — 1 in 125 Self-driving car fatality — 1 in 115 Car crash — 1 in 105 Firefighter duty death — 1 in 455 Police duty death — 1 in 357 Homicide — 1 in 339 Pig-butchering scam — 1 in 106 Extreme heat — 1 in 333 Climate change death — 1 in 204 Bat bite & rabies — 1 in 278 Mosquito-borne disease — 1 in 190 Food poisoning (global) — 1 in 317 Solar panel fire — 1 in 667 Untreated childhood scoliosis — 1 in 1,000 Child window fall — 1 in 855 Walker stair fall — 1 in 625 Infant fall — 1 in 500 Baby walker injury — 1 in 455 Maternal mortality — 1 in 272 Maternal age & birth defects — 1 in 200 Child death (<18) — 1 in 103 Caving career death — 1 in 167 EMS duty death — 1 in 909 Civilian war casualty — 1 in 499 Soldier in combat — 1 in 270 Student visa revocation — 1 in 263 Mining career death — 1 in 214 Gambling financial ruin — 1 in 159 Lightning home fire — 1 in 461 Wildfire home destruction — 1 in 120 Malaria (travel) — 1 in 10,000 Infection from shared drink — 1 in 10,000 Chagas disease — 1 in 8,475 Wild berry fox tapeworm — 1 in 8,475 Child nicotine-pouch ingestion — 1 in 7,937 Schistosomiasis death — 1 in 6,667 Sudden death (young adult) — 1 in 3,922 Unsafe wiring — 1 in 3,390 Sepsis from wound — 1 in 2,857 Anesthesia awareness — 1 in 2,500 Heat stroke (outdoor) — 1 in 1,905 House fire — 1 in 1,818 Rabies from dogs — 1 in 1,449 Drowning — 1 in 1,379 Shallow-water diving SCI — 1 in 1,111 Choking — 1 in 1,099 EVALI vaping hospitalization — 1 in 1,064 Betel nut cancer — 1 in 1,290 Blood clot (flight) — 1 in 4,651 Killing a cyclist — 1 in 3,937 Teen road-crash death — 1 in 3,030 Child rear bike seat — 1 in 2,500 Child without restraint — 1 in 2,000 Fatal police encounter — 1 in 4,739 Honor killing — 1 in 2,381 Intimate-partner homicide — 1 in 1,767 Hurricane — 1 in 8,929 Drought famine death — 1 in 6,536 Blizzard death — 1 in 4,367 Earthquake — 1 in 3,802 Listeria from deli meat — 1 in 6,061 Serious E. coli from fresh produce — 1 in 4,831 Food poisoning (US) — 1 in 1,862 Fish mercury — 1 in 1,695 Fish bone injury — 1 in 1,429 Phone/laptop battery fire — 1 in 4,545 Laundry pod ingestion — 1 in 6,494 Pool drowning — 1 in 5,882 Untreated infant hip dysplasia — 1 in 5,000 SIDS — 1 in 2,398 War (civilian) — 1 in 2,000 Flu brain swelling in a child (IAE/ANE) — 1 in 100,000 Fatal bee/wasp sting — 1 in 76,923 Locally-acquired dengue (continental US) — 1 in 66,667 Anesthesia death — 1 in 45,662 Dog hot car death — 1 in 41,667 Vibrio vulnificus wound infection — 1 in 32,051 Anaphylaxis — 1 in 27,548 Chiropractic neck manipulation — 1 in 16,667 CO poisoning — 1 in 14,006 Hepatitis A (travel) — 1 in 12,500 Skipping allergy immunotherapy — 1 in 11,111 Acrylamide & cancer — 1 in 16,667 Bus crash — 1 in 100,000 Plane crash — 1 in 58,824 Post-crash car fire — 1 in 25,000 Railroad crossing death — 1 in 20,576 Car submersion — 1 in 16,667 Child bike trailer — 1 in 14,286 Runway near-miss — 1 in 13,699 Acid attack — 1 in 94,340 Terrorism — 1 in 77,519 Child stranger abduction — 1 in 38,760 Stranger kidnapping — 1 in 35,211 Dowry death — 1 in 13,158 Accidental gun death — 1 in 11,299 Wildfire — 1 in 100,000 Tornado — 1 in 80,645 Tsunami — 1 in 52,632 Ocean drowning — 1 in 29,155 Flood — 1 in 20,202 Post-hurricane heat death — 1 in 20,000 Landslide death — 1 in 18,416 Supervolcano eruption — 1 in 12,376 Bee sting — 1 in 78,927 Swallowed bee/wasp — 1 in 29,155 Fatal scorpion sting — 1 in 26,110 Dog chocolate death — 1 in 13,889 Lead-tainted cinnamon pouch — 1 in 40,000 Plastic container leaching — 1 in 16,949 Infant car-seat asphyxia — 1 in 64,935 Bouncer chair fall — 1 in 60,606 Toddler choking — 1 in 50,000 Unsupervised infant choking — 1 in 50,000 Forward-facing toddler death — 1 in 26,738 Magnet ingestion — 1 in 12,048 Snorkeling death — 1 in 21,739 Pet in transport — 1 in 20,000 Death in ICE custody — 1 in 17,065 Landmine or UXO injury — 1 in 14,728 Vaccine reaction — 1 in 763,359 Aluminum & Alzheimer's — 1 in 169,492 Residential gas leak — 1 in 140,845 Child hot car death — 1 in 102,041 Glyphosate & cancer — 1 in 1,000,000 Teflon cookware cancer — 1 in 169,492 Roller coaster injury — 1 in 312,500 Ferry sinking — 1 in 133,333 Turbulence injury — 1 in 114,943 School shooting — 1 in 192,308 Mass shooting — 1 in 113,636 Avalanche — 1 in 210,526 Lightning — 1 in 209,205 Snake bite — 1 in 884,956 Spider bite — 1 in 833,333 Hippo attack — 1 in 564,972 Crocodile attack — 1 in 337,838 Dog bite — 1 in 142,045 Pesticide residue — 1 in 1,000,000 Dirty can illness — 1 in 200,000 PLA bioplastic harm — 1 in 169,492 Infant swing death — 1 in 714,286 Whole-grape choking — 1 in 625,000 Child blind cord strangulation — 1 in 416,667 Child plastic bag suffocation — 1 in 263,158 Button battery — 1 in 250,000 Inclined sleeper death — 1 in 238,095 Elevator/escalator death — 1 in 188,324 Japanese encephalitis (travel) — 1 in 2,000,000 Kid + front airbag — 1 in 10,000,000 Asteroid impact — 1 in 1,351,351 Banana spider eggs — 1 in 10,000,000 Shark attack — 1 in 5,681,818 Bear attack — 1 in 3,787,879 Wild berry poisoning — 1 in 2,222,222 Piranha attack — 1 in 135,135,135 Phone at gas pump — 1 in 1,000,000,000 Phone on plane — 1 in 1,000,000,000
Lottery jackpot 1 in 95,238

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