Evidence quality 4.75/5
Eight-dimension review score against the quality rubric . Each dimension scored 1–5.
- D1 Source grounding
- 5/5
- D2 Source authority
- 5/5
- D3 Arithmetic
- 5/5
- D4 Uncertainty
- 5/5
- D5 Scope
- 5/5
- D6 Prose
- 4/5
- D7 Perception honesty
- 4/5
- D8 Caveat completeness
- 5/5
Pick challenger
Home burglary is one of the more common property crimes, but pinning a clean lifetime number on it is harder than it looks. The Bureau of Justice Statistics’ National Crime Victimization Survey reports household property victimization in aggregate — 102.2 per 1,000 households in 2023 — but that figure bundles burglary and trespassing together with motor-vehicle theft and other household theft, and the headline release does not break out the burglary component. The FBI’s police-reported count (852,963 burglaries in 2023) captures only incidents reported to police, a minority of the true total, and is measured per population rather than per household. Because none of the sources we can reach here publishes a burglary-specific per-household rate, this entry does not carry a single lifetime probability: the honest position is that no reliable estimate is available from the sources at hand.
Gallup finds 34% of Americans worry frequently or occasionally about their home being burglarized, placing it in the middle of the crime-worry hierarchy — above being mugged (29%) or murdered (22%), below car theft (39%) and identity theft (69%). The part most people miss is the trend: reported burglary has fallen steeply. Over the 2005-2024 stretch, the national burglary rate dropped 69% and total reported burglaries fell 64%, from over 2.1 million incidents to fewer than 780,000. It is one of the steepest and most sustained drops in any US crime category, widely attributed to improved home security technology, demographic shifts, and changes in drug markets. A 25-year-old today faces a meaningfully lower per-year risk than their parents did at the same age.
Even if a clean national rate existed, it would be a population average that masks large variation. The NCVS consistently shows that urban renters face roughly two to three times the burglary rate of suburban homeowners, and lower-income households are disproportionately affected. Geography compounds everything: county-level rates span more than an order of magnitude. Whatever the national picture, it is a poor answer to “how worried should I be?” for any particular household that knows its own neighborhood, income bracket, and security setup.
Related tidbits
Identity theft affects millions annually and is rising. Home burglary rates have dropped 60%+ since the 1990s. People install deadbolts and alarm systems for the declining threat while reusing passwords for the growing one.
Claim ledger
Every number below is what each source reported, with the verbatim quote we relied on and how we arrived at our figure. Click any link to verify directly.
3/3 sources independently verified verbatim against the cited source
-
[1] US Bureau of Justice Statistics — Criminal Victimization, 2023 Verified
Criminal Victimization, 2023See all 2 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
Property victimization rate of 102.2 per 1,000 households in 2023 (includes burglary/trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other household theft; the press release does not break out the burglary component)- Excerpt
“"In 2023, the rate of property victimization was 102.2 per 1,000 households, which was not significantly different from 2022. Property victimization includes burglary or trespassing, motor vehicle theft, and other types of household theft." ”
- Source data from
- 2024-09-12
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- BJS NCVS Criminal Victimization 2023 reports total property victimization at 102.2 per 1,000 households, a figure that bundles burglary/trespassing with motor-vehicle theft and other household theft. This press release does not report the burglary component on its own, so it cannot ground a burglary-specific per-household rate or a lifetime probability. The NCVS captures both reported and unreported victimizations via household interviews, making it the most complete US household victimization measure, but the burglary subrate needed here lives in detailed data tables not reached among these cited sources.
- Independence
- BJS NCVS is a household survey conducted independently of the FBI UCR/NIBRS law-enforcement reporting system. The two count burglaries through entirely different pipelines — victim recall vs police reports — and the NCVS typically yields higher counts because it captures unreported incidents.
-
[2] SafeHome.org (citing FBI UCR/NIBRS) — The Latest Burglary Statistics: How Common is Burglary in the U.S.? Verified
The Latest Burglary Statistics: How Common is Burglary in the U.S.?- Statistic
852,963 reported burglaries in 2023 at a rate of 253.3 per 100,000; national burglary rate dropped 69% between 2005 and 2024- Excerpt
“"This represents a 9.5% decrease in the burglary rate from 2023 (253.3 per 100,000). The national burglary rate dropped 69% between 2005 and 2024. The data shows that total burglaries dropped by 64 percent between 2005 and 2024, from over 2.1 million incidents to fewer than 780,000." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-10-01
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- FBI UCR/NIBRS reports 852,963 burglaries in 2023 at 253.3 per 100,000 population. This is a police-reported count and is lower than a household-survey measure would be, because FBI data only counts incidents reported to police and only a minority of household burglaries are reported to authorities. The figure is per-population rather than per-household, so it establishes that reported burglary is common and steeply declining (down 69% from 2005 to 2024) but does not by itself yield a per-household annual or lifetime probability.
- Independence
- FBI UCR/NIBRS collects incident data from law enforcement agencies, while BJS NCVS surveys households directly. The two systems are methodologically independent and undercount in opposite directions.
-
[3] Gallup — Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight Year Verified
Crime in U.S. Seen as Less Serious for Second Straight YearSee all 6 Likelier entries citing this source →
- Statistic
34% of US adults worry frequently or occasionally about having their home burglarized (October 2025)- Excerpt
“"Fewer Americans say they worry about crimes, such as having a car stolen (39%) or their home burglarized (34%), being a victim of a hate crime (30%), or getting mugged (29%), attacked while driving (27%), murdered (22%) or sexually assaulted (21%)." ”
- Source data from
- 2025-10-30
- Accessed
- 2026-04-11 · archived copy
- Verification
- Excerpt independently re-fetched and confirmed word-for-word against the cited source during our grounding audit.
- Calculation
- Used for the perceived-risk side only. The 34% figure is the fraction of respondents reporting frequent-or-occasional worry, not an elicited probability. It places home burglary in the middle tier of Gallup's crime-worry hierarchy.
- Independence
- Gallup telephone survey data, entirely separate from both BJS NCVS household victimization sampling and FBI UCR police-report aggregation. Measures public worry, not incidence — included only for the perceived-risk axis and not for any probability estimate.